Do the Sabres Rely on Special Teams?

by David Oleksy on Aug 31, 2009 10:00 AM EDT

We all know that special teams are a real big part of winning hockey games. We also know the Buffalo Sabres were pretty good last year on the power play and the penalty kill. At one point late in the season the Sabres were in the top five in both categories. They eventually finished seventh on the power play and 14th on the penalty kill.

I decided to dig a little bit deeper into these numbers and figure out how the power play helped determine the outcome of games. I was surprised to see just how much the Sabres relied upon their power play. The Sabres earned only 16 points in 24 games where their opponent scored more power play goals than they did.

Follow the jump to see more stats...

PP Goal Margin	Record	Pts	# Games
3	1-0-0	2	1
2	10-1-1	21	12
1	11-6-1	23	18
E	12-12-3	27	27
-1	6-9-2	14	17
-2	1-5-0	2	6
-3	0-1-0	0	1

You can see that the Sabres put up a much better record when they outscore their opponent on the power play. This is to be expected but it is the bottom half of the chart that separates the best teams from the teams that miss the playoffs.

Buffalo scored more power play goals than their opponents a total of 31 times this season and earned 46 points during those games. They earned only 43 points in the other 51 games they played this season. Special teams and namely the power play were the only reason the Sabres were even close to the playoffs this season. It's not a surprise that the special teams faltered at the end of the season and the Sabres fell out of the playoff race.

For arguments sake I have taken a look at some other teams breakdown to compare to the Sabres. The Boston Bruins were the best team in the Eastern Conference and therefore should be a good gauge of what a good team will look like.

PP Goal Margin	Record	Pts	# Games
3
2	12-0-0	24	12
1	15-1-1	31	17
E	20-9-4	44	33
-1	5-6-4	14	15
-2	1-3-1	3	5
-3

The Bruins are very good when they score more power play goals than their opponents but their record when power play goals are even is what jumps off the page.

Here is a look at the Detroit Red Wings power play goal breakdown...

PP Goal Margin	Record	Pts	# Games
4	1-0-0	2	1
3	1-0-0	2	1
2	9-0-2	20	11
1	12-3-2	26	17
E	19-6-3	41	28
-1	9-11-2	20	20
-2	0-1-0	0	1
-3	1-0-0	2	1

The Red Wings follow suit with the Boston Bruins by beating their opponents when the power play goal margin is even.

Is it possible that I have been wrong all along and this team is not as good as I have been saying they are? Do they really rely on special teams as much as the charts show they do?

Having a good special teams will always be important but the Sabres need to be better at even strength. This has been the downfall of this team the past couple of seasons and should be an area of focus for the coaching staff as they get ready for training camp.

The numbers above look only at power play goals and we know the Sabres had a pretty good power play last season. The Sabres penalty killing was pretty good last as well. They finished 14th in the league but once again that doesn't show you how it affected the teams record.

PP Opp Margin	Record	Pts	# Games
4	3-4-1	7	8
3	4-2-1	9	7
2	9-6-0	18	15
1	2-4-0	4	6
E	6-6-3	15	15
-1	4-4-1	9	9
-2	7-2-0	14	9
-3	4-2-1	9	7
-4	2-2-2	6	6

This chart was designed to show you the difference in power play opportunities. The Sabres had a wining record last season when their opponents had more power play opportunities than they did. That doesn't happen without good penalty killing.

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Comments

Buffalo has definitely been one of the better teams on the PK didnt realize how they did on the PP great stats to know, in the end i think it was just exhaustion that lead to the 14th place in the PK

by mitch400214 on Aug 31, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions

special teams

I agree, last year’s special teams almost got the Sabres into the playoffs. It was the inability to score at full strength that hurt them. There is no reason to believe that there will be any difference this year since we have essentially the same team, except the special teams will unlikely have the stellar success they had last year. That is the reason I have picked the Sabres to finish in the bottom four of the division.

I have been a Sabres fan from the beginning and sincerely hope they prove me wrong, but I don’t see any change in attitude from management or the players. Everyone seems complacent and happy with their salaries and their security. It’s as if everyone in the Sabres organization believes they will “mature” and miraculously be a contender for the Cup. Management and Lindy are taking a highly risky gamble on players that proved last season that they don’t have the talent or desire to be a playoff contender.

Remember, gamblers always die broke.

by geolover5 on Aug 31, 2009 5:49 PM EDT reply actions

Why is it hard to believe that with new players calling the old ones out on lacking heart and the new prospects coming up to play i e Webber Myers even Brennan possibly it wont change? Just because they didnt do big names in the off season doesnt mean there wont be a change

by mitch400214 on Sep 1, 2009 12:04 AM EDT reply actions

I love the fact that we now have enough kids pushing up from below to really challenge for roster spots. Guys like Paille and Stafford need to have the fear of unemployment put in them. I’ll be watching Gerbe closely in camp. If he can find some chemistry on the RW with either Roy or Timmah! then many of our worries about the Top 6 forwards will be gone.

He won’t keep it up for the entire season, but if he’s good for the first 30 games or so before hitting the wall that should be enough, in my mind.

Ta,

by Tom Luongo on Sep 1, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah i love how our prospects are getting more attention then our players, that should spark something if it were me. Competition = Better playing

by mitch400214 on Sep 1, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Good comparison between the top teams and us, D.O. It provides solid numbers to back up what we fans plainly see when watching the games… the Sabres are too soft. Even strength scoring requires the stones to ‘take a punch to make a play.’

That’s why I’m so baffled by Stafford not having a contract. If he’d played like that down the stretch, we would have made the playoffs. Then after disappearing when the games meant the most, he’s asking for top dollar as an RFA with no arbitration rights is just plain stupidity.

Thanks again for the breakdown. It went well with the morning coffee.

Ta,

by Tom Luongo on Sep 1, 2009 8:54 AM EDT reply actions