Buffalo Sabres Statistics: Even Strength Goals For

by David Oleksy on Aug 16, 2009 7:12 PM EDT

This post is long overdue and would have been done a long time ago if it wasn't for this oppressive heat. I know I need to get central air next year so I can continue to post on these scorching hot days.

If you are new to the site I will tell you up front that I am a numbers guy. I love to look at statistics and analyze what they mean and what the effect is on the team. Today I am looking at the even strength stats for each player. We did something similar last week when I analyzed the even strength shooting for each player.

The stats this week are not even strength goals by each player but rather the teams goals for while players on the ice. I know this isn't an exact science but it does give you an idea of how the team performs while certain players on the ice.

The stats used in this post are a bit more exact because they factor in the amount of time on the ice instead of just looking at the total number goals scored. The numbers are different than you would expect.

Goals For Per 20 Minutes on Ice - Forwards

Tim Connolly 1.339
Thomas Vanek 1.059
Dominic Moore 1.024 (Numbers include time Leafs)
Jason Pominville 0.922
Drew Stafford 0.908
Daniel Paille 0.888
Derek Roy 0.839
Paul Gaustad 0.812
Maxim Afinogenov 0.781
Clarke MacArthur 0.761
Patrick Kaleta 0.705
Nathan Gerbe 0.691
Adam Mair 0.656
Matt Ellis 0.616
Jochen Hecht 0.597
Andrew Peters 0.178

Goals For Per 20 Minutes on Ice - Defense

Jaro Spacek 0.949
Craig Rivet 0.868
Henrik Tallinder 0.823
Chris Butler .808
Toni Lydman 0.788
Nathan Paetsch .774
Andrej Sekera 0.770
Teppo Numminen .744

There are couple of interesting stats that immediately jump off the page at me. Once again we see Daniel Paille among the team leaders. He is ranked sixth among the forwards listed and finished better than Derek Roy. Many consider Roy to be the Sabres best forward yet he is only seventh.

The stats above are somewhat useful but I wanted to know which forwards played best with each other on the ice. I didn't look at every player on the team but I looked at the players that interested me the most.

Here is what I found out...

Tim Connolly
Played with the Most	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Jason Pominville	302:33:00	24	1.587
Thomas Vanek	233:37:00	20	1.712

Played with Best	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Maxim Afinogenov	10:07	3	5.931
Clarke MacArthur	100:49:00	10	1.984

Connolly seems to play well with just about anyone. He played most of his time with Pominville and Vanek and the three played very well together. Why not start the season with a top line of Connolly centering for Vanek and Pominville? I would put that line up against some of the best lines in the league.

Thomas Vanek
Played with the Most	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Derek Roy	452:48:00	19	0.839
Drew Stafford	413:19:00	25	1.21

Played with Best	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Tim Connolly	233:37:00	20	1.712

Vanek played the majority of his 5-on-5 time with Stafford and Roy but the three never put up huge numbers. The perception is they were the Sabres best line but the reality is they scored most of their points on the power play. Once again the statistics show that Vanek combined with Connolly equals goals for the Sabres. I am starting the Vanek-Connolly-Pominville campaign today.

Jason Pominville
Played with the Most	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Jochen Hecht	528:59:00	16	0.605
Tim Connolly	302:39:00	24	1.587

Played with Best	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Matt Ellis	42:23:00	4	1.888

Pominville has been criticized all season and off-season for having a poor season but nobody has really looked at the statistics. Pominville played well over 500 minutes with Jochen Hecht while only 16 goals were scored for the Sabres. If Pominville had an opportunity to play with better forwards he would still be a point-per-game player. This season will be the big test for Pominville because I think Lindy will be smart enough to keep Pommer away from Hecht (I hope).

Once again look at the numbers that Pominville puts up when playing with Connolly. Let's all jump on the Vanek-Connolly-Pominville bandwagon!

Drew Stafford
Played with the Most	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Derek Roy	666:00:00	30	0.901
Thomas Vanek	418:19:00	25	1.21

Played with Best	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Tim Connolly	187:11:00	13	1.389

Stafford is just a decent player no matter who he plays with. The numbers don't really sway too far in either direction. In my opinion this shows that he is an important player on the team but not flashy enough to get a huge contract.

Daniel Paille
Played with the Most	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Paul Gaustad	224:11:00	9	0.803
Adam Mair	193:48:00	9	0.929

Played with Best	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Derek Roy	77:05:00	7	1.816

I have been beating the Daniel Paille drum for a couple of weeks but nobody has supported me. Maybe these numbers will change your mind. Paille was in the top six forwards in goals scored per 20 minutes and this chart above shows that he has played the majority of his ice time with Paul Gaustad and Adam Mair. Look at how high the numbers jump when he plays with Derek Roy. I stated this last week and I'll state it again...Paille deserves to be given a chance at a top six spot on this team. How about Paille-Roy-Stafford as the Sabres second line?

Derek Roy
Played with the Most	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Drew Stafford	666:00:00	30	0.901
Thomas Vanek	452:48:00	19	0.839

Played with Best	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Daniel Paille	77:05:00	7	1.816

Nothing flashy here...moving along!

Clarke MacArthur
Played with the Most	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Jason Pominville	282:46:00	13	0.913
Drew Stafford	178:31:00	7	0.784

Played with Best	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Tim Connolly	100:49:00	10	1.984

A couple of weeks ago I was really hyping up Clarke MacArthur and now I am going to back off that slightly. I still think that C-Mac can be a key scorer for the Sabres but maybe he doesn't deserve to be ahead of Paille on the Sabres depth chart.

Jochen Hecht
Played with the Most	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Jason Pominville	528:59:00	16	0.605
Derek Roy	202:47:00	8	0.789

Played with Best	Time on Ice	Goals For	Goals/20 Min.
Daniel Paille	46:51:00	3	1.281

For arguments sake I am showing you the pathetic numbers of Jochen Hecht. It's amazing to see how far he has fallen in just one season. I project him on the fourth line for the team this year. Just imagine if he bounces back and plays like the old Jochen Hecht. He would be one hell of a fourth line player.

This post is for entertainment purposes only. Do not use this post to assess the Sabres chances of making the playoffs this season. It's fun to take a look at the numbers when the dog days of summer arrive and we start getting geared up for training camp.

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Comments

I have been saying for the last 2 weeks that we blame Pommy to much because he had a bad year but look who he was partnered with for the length of the season. I was not the biggest Paille supporter but since i have been reading and posting on this site you have shown that he has the capability to be a top 6 forward if given the chance. i wouldnt mind seeing him with Roy and Stafford and Mac with Goose and Grier which would still be a good line with Grier give Mac the space to shoot and Goose to screen the goalie and scoop up rebounds

by mitch400214 on Aug 16, 2009 7:26 PM EDT reply actions

That’s the way I’m leaning as well. C-Mac with Goose and Grier could be a decent line. I see Hecht with Mair and Kaleta with Ellis and McCormik as extras. We will undoubtedly have to deal with injuries that will change everything anyway.

As far as Paille is concerned…I never thought he was that good but every time I look at stats his numbers are good. I think that if he is given a chance he could be a really good player. I think what is so frustrating about him is consistency. At times he can be a dominating force and at other times he is invisible.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Aug 16, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with the Mac Goose Grier idea but I would actually kind of lean towards putting Paille on that line instead of Mac because I trust him defensively a lot more. I think I’d like that line quite a bit as a checking line that could really chip in some offense. Imagine if those three all played to their potential and put up a collective 50 goals while shutting down opposing team’s top lines – that would do wonders for our team. Maybe that’s a bit ambitious but Grier has had 5 seasons where he put up 15 or more, I could see him doing that again. Goose has gone 9, 9, 10, 12 and only played 62 games last year – he could easily put up 15 or more in a full season. And then Paille has had 19 and 12 – is it impossible for him to get 15-20?

The only thing more pointless then predicting line combos is predicting goal totals – whatever though, it’s fun anyway.

"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy

by TEMSON on Aug 16, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

What else are we going to do in the middle of August?

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Aug 16, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly.

"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy

by TEMSON on Aug 16, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Heck the best way for a player to learn how to play defensively is by being shown and who better then Grier and Goose? I would def try out Paille up on the second line switching between him and Mac have them compete for it nothing better for production then a friendly competition for a position and the players actually know who they are competing against, it brings out the best play from everyone.

by mitch400214 on Aug 17, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Paille

I’ve been trying to get people on the Danny Paille train for a while now. I think he unfairly gets blamed for low numbers. But when he gets ice time, and plays with quality offensive players, he puts up big numbers. Also, there’s no player on this team I’d rather have finishing a 2 on 1 then him. He has excellent hands near the net and re-directs the puck brilliantly. Not to mention, unlike MacArthur and Stafford, he’s reliable in his own zone and plays tough in the corners.

"Potential just means you haven’t done sh## yet"

by willgarr15 on Aug 16, 2009 10:24 PM EDT reply actions

Exellent article.

I joined just to comment on this article. It’s an eye-opener. Well done! I can see the Vanek – Connolly – JJ Pommer line, statistically, being the top. However, Lindy didn’t run that line too much last season – why? And then he shakes up the lines anyway.

And Paille – that’s an interesting case. I like his game better than The General’s. I could see him with Roy and Stafford, he’d certainly be the one who hits the most on that line.

Question: the teams have to run numbers like these, right? I mean, it’s so obvious a way to draw up lines the team surely has been doing these since the very beginning?

by sizzlemeister on Aug 17, 2009 1:45 AM EDT reply actions

paille roy stafford

It’s a line I have been wondering about all of last season. I don’t know the numbers like you guys do, but everytime I see Paille bang around and take shots he’s producing… Is there a name for that kinda a player? snider? griper?

by fweakyfishie on Aug 17, 2009 3:08 AM EDT reply actions

i seem to remember paille going up the board taking it in shooting and scoring, then the next game on line four banging people up i didnt understand why someone with the ability to do both play so little time

by mitch400214 on Aug 17, 2009 1:48 PM EDT reply actions

there were stretches last year where Paille looked like the best player on the ice and I just never understood why he didn’t get more playing time. It seemed like he always had the puck in the offensive zone.

I’d love to see Hecht only used on the 4th line and the penalty kill, but I doubt LIndy would do that. He puts way too much faith in him, and left in the top 6 months longer than most coaches would have.

Vanek/Connolly/Pominville is fine with me as a top line. I really thought that MacArthur/Roy/Stafford played better on even strength then the line did with Vanek for the short time they were together early in the year. I think I’d prefer to see Kaleta on the third line with Paille and Goose, but he’d need to prove he can stay healthy first. I just see a lot of offensive potential there, and saw it as a waste when they had him with Peters a lot last year.

Big thing I disagree on is Mair. He should be riding the pine with Ellis as our 4th line center. Late in the year Paille and Ellis looked great together. I honestly thought Paille, Ellis and Paetsch was one of our best all around even strength lines all year. Showed a lot more potential than Mair ever did.

by SabreBowie on Aug 17, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions

Mair isnt afraid to get in front of the net but i just dont believe he will be resigned again next year even know he is a great guy. Kaleta has some o potential but not much he looked great next to peters but i think Goose is better offensively. Kaleta is doomed to get injuries it comes with his job which sucks. Every team wants a guy like him to bait the other team into penalties. Even after his injuries he wasnt afraid to get in peoples faces and make them do stupid things to him again and again which makes him even more valuable. Its hard to expect him to stay healthy with the job he has, he almost signs his name on the injury list at the start of the season he is the definition of taking one for the team

by mitch400214 on Aug 17, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Good to see i’m not the only one with love for Paille out there.
Also Stafford did produce the most when he was opposite MacArthur for stretches early in the season…

"Potential just means you haven’t done sh## yet"

by willgarr15 on Aug 18, 2009 10:20 PM EDT reply actions