Buffalo Sabres Tradeability
by David Oleksy on Jul 3, 2009 10:00 AM EDT
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PrintIt is no secret that the Buffalo Sabres need to shed some salary in order to sign enough players to have a full roster next season. After the signing of Steve Montador on Wednesday they have committed approximately $47.5 million towards next season and they have a budget of around $50 million. All is good, they have $2.5 million left to burn in free agency. The problem is that they have only eight forwards signed for next season.
They will be able to call up players like Nathan Gerbe and Tim Kennedy that are still playing on their entry-level contract to help the salary situation. They still have five restricted free agents that they need to try to sign as well. It will be virtually impossible for Darcy Regier to sign enough players to complete the roster without trading away a roster player or two.
Now that we have established that someone will be traded we can try to figure out who that player(s) might be. This is a team that has missed the playoffs for two consecutive seasons so you have to think that basically no player is untouchable. If I had to name two players that would never be traded I would say Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller.
We have all heard of the word drinkability after Bud Light has made it so famous. The full definition of drinkability from Webster's Dictionary is "suitable or safe for". We can alter the word slightly and use the same definition to talk about tradeability.
What are the Sabres players Tradeability?
| Pos | Player | Contract Status | Cap Hit | Tradeability | Likely to be traded |
| LW | Thomas Vanek | 2013-2014 | $7,142,857 | 100% | 10% |
| C | Derek Roy | 2012-2013 | $4,000,000 | 90% | 20% |
| RW | Jason Pominville | 2013-2014 | $5,000,000 | 50% | 50% |
| LW/C | Jochen Hecht | 2011-2012 | $3,525,000 | 30% | 30% |
| C | Tim Connolly | 2010-2011 | $4,500,000 | 50% | 10% |
| RW | Drew Stafford | RFA | x | 90% | 50% |
| LW | Daniel Paille | 2009-2010 | $1,350,000 | 60% | 40% |
| C/LW | Paul Gaustad | 2011-2012 | $2,500,000 | 30% | 10% |
| RW | Mark Mancari | RFA | x | 60% | 50% |
| LW | Clarke MacArthur | RFA | x | 90% | 50% |
| C/LW | Adam Mair | 2009-2010 | $758,333 | 50% | 20% |
| RW | Patrick Kaleta | RFA | x | 95% | 10% |
| LW/C | Tim Kennedy | 2009-2010 | $635,000 | 90% | 10% |
| C/LW | Phillip Gogulla | 2009-2010 | $685,000 | 60% | 10% |
| C/LW | Nathan Gerbe | 2010-2011 | $850,000 | 95% | 20% |
| D | Craig Rivet | 2010-2011 | $2,333,333 | 70% | 20% |
| D | Henrik Tallinder | 2009-2010 | $2,562,500 | 40% | 40% |
| D | Toni Lydman | 2009-2010 | $2,875,000 | 50% | 50% |
| D | Nathan Paestch | 2009-2010 | $850,000 | 40% | 50% |
| D | Andrej Sekera | RFA | x | 70% | 30% |
| D | Chris Butler | 2010-2011 | $576,666 | 90% | 10% |
Tradeability
There are plenty of players on the Sabres that other teams would covet for various reasons. They may have offensive talent, be a physical player, a solid defender etc. That doesn't mean the Sabres will be actively shopping a player because he is a tradeable player. There are many factors that go into a trade and the key is to find the right deal.
The Sabres most tradeable players would be...
- Thomas Vanek - Has the offensive numbers of a superstar at a relatively low cost. Teams would be falling all over themselves to get a player of his caliber.
- Patrick Kaleta - This one may sound a bit strange but every team wants a player like Kaleta that gets under the opponents skin.
- Nathan Gerbe - An outstanding offensive talent that could someday be a huge (no pun intended) goal scorer in the NHL.
Most Likely to get traded
The players that are most likely to get traded are listed in no particular order.
- Jason Pominville - had one bad season that will bring down his trade value but he would be a player that other teams would want. He had a couple of really big offensive seasons and has enjoyed some playoff success which makes him attractive to a desperate team.
- Drew Stafford - He is a restricted free agent that is likely to get a pretty heft raise after a 20 goal season. The Sabres may not want to trade him away but may be forced to lie they did with Steve Bernier.
- Mark Mancari - He is also a restricted free agent and he has never been given much of a chance by Lindy Ruff. He is a two-time AHL all-star that may be enough to get teams to give something back.
- Toni Lydman - He is just one of the Sabres overpaid defensive players. Tallinder has fallen so far off the map that Lydman is tradeable by default. He does block shots and plays a slightly physical game which could entice some team to take on his salary.
- Nathan Paetsch - For no other reason than him not figuring into the Sabres plans. He may be more likely to moved at the trade deadline.
There are some notable exceptions off of each of these lists. Just based on conversations there are people that are ready to ship off Derek Roy, Tim Connolly and Jochen Hecht in a heartbeat. News Flash! Those players aren't going anywhere in the near future.
Derek Roy is possibly the Sabres best all-around player and he comes at a relatively cheap price. Unless you can get a top six forward for under $4 million per season, Derek Roy is going nowhere.
Tim Connolly signed a two-year extension at the trade deadline. They didn't sign him to ship him off in the off-season to free up salary. He is also a good player at a relatively cheap cap hit.
The Sabres would probably love to trade away Jochen Hecht but what is the market for a 32 year-old defensive-forward that is coming off his worst season as a professional. Throw in his $3.8 million salary this season and he becomes even less attractive. I would be surprised if Jochen Hecht is not on this team on opening night.
The trade market has been weak so far wit only a few deals taking place in the last week or so. As the trade market heats up, it is likely the Sabres would be a part of it. Who do you think the Sabres will trade away?
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It's pretty obvious
Keep Lydman, Get rid of Tallinder. Sign Ellis, Pomminville is a perimeter player, he can go. Mancari if you can sign him for cheap. Stafford needs to sit when he is not productive. Kaleta needs to stay. Paetch is only here because his salary fits the position, he can be replaced by someone younger with more potential. McArthur I would give one more year as well as Sekera. Make Gaustad the captain. Bring up the kids early and often. If Hecht starts off like last year, send him to Portland. If he clears waivers, then he at least has some motivation when he gets back. Gerbe will never be a St Louis get what you can for him. Give Kassian 10 games. Put Myers with Rivet and let him learn to be a pro. Paille is a expensive 3rd liner see if there is any interest. Gragnani needs some weight, lets see what he can do after feeding him some milk shakes. Let me know what you think
Nice concise braindump.
I don’t know if Goose is ready for the C, but if it’s given to him, hopefully it’ll help step his game up offensively. I agree with the kids coming up often and losing Tallinder. I would like to get something really good for Pommer, otherwise he stays, it’s only one down year (first year of his big contract, didn’t vanek disappear also?). Stafford is twice as talented as Kotalik, but also just as lazy at times. Kaleta’s not going anywhere (bye peters). Sekera needs to man up and come into his own, MacArthur is good and will do well this year. I’d give them two years. Lydman has been the most physical blueliner we’ve had since Campbell. I think him and Montador as a stay at home tandem could be quite good. Butler will be solid this year and I want to see Weber compete. I agree about Hecht. I have NEVER believed in Paille. He is not worth what he is getting. Myers is someone I’m really excited about, just needs to bulk up and learn to lay some lumber. I would like to see TJ Brennan and Tyler Ennis called up for a couple of games. Gerbe could be St. Louis or, at least, Danny Briere. The kid is talented and just needs to catch up the pro speed.
Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.
by NeverendingOptimism on Jul 3, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Pominville
If this team traded Pominville away I swear to God I will become a Pens fan. Just giving a proper warning.
Pommer
Amanda, Pommer is a great guy, but the idea is to win a Stanley Cup. I watched him fire shot after shot from angles most mite goalies could stop. Marty Biron was a great guy too as well as Drury and Briere and Spacek and Campbell. If we can get a player with Gaustads size who could score and wasn’t afraid to go into the tough areas to make a play. I would just assume let Pommer go.
yes if we could get a player with size who could score it’s worth trading Pominville, but honestly whose going to give up a player like that for someone coming off a down year? With his price tag the only thing we’ll get back is a bad contract and some draft picks who won’t help for years.
I don’t get where the idea comes from that we can trade away Pominville (or Roy for that matter) and get a player better back in the deal. It just makes no sense.
Please explain
The NHL salary for the upcoming season is, I believe about $57…..so why is the Buffalo “budget” 50M? Wouldn’t that mean we could miss out signing a really good player?
I know this is a simple question and it probably has been answered many times but I don’t get the Buffalo papers if this has been written about, or I missed it here on Diebytheblade?
Geez, we sell out every game and our owner is a billionaire…..what am I missing here? Thanks.
We may sell out every game.
But we have the lowest ticket prices in the league, too.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
by MattRichWarren on Jul 3, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Not true
St. Louis has the lowest ticket prices, by far. However, we are right up there among the next cheapest.
by ccthemovieman on Jul 3, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
The Salary Cap is going to be close to 54-55 this year but teams are already worrying about next year when it is likely to drop significantly (probably to around 50). Furthermore, even though the Sabres sell out many of their games Buffalo is an extremely small market team and therefore doesn’t bring in nearly as much money as some other teams. For example, if only 1 in 10 New Yorkers bought a licensed Rangers jersey that would be more than if everyone in Buffalo bought one. Selling out games helps, but a bigger percentage of revenue comes from tv ratings and merchandise, areas where Buffalo can’t compete with the New Yorks or LAs of the business.
In a city that has only 250,000 people it’s tough to compete. The Sabres have to be smarter about their spending habits because they can only spend to the cap every so often. When we won the presidents trophy we were spending nearly to the cap – but it made sense to then since we had a legitimate chance of winning the cup. Even if we spent to the cap this year we would be a real long shot to make it past a round or two of the playoffs – therefore it’s hard to justify spending the extra money. Especially when you consider that in a year or two we might be in a more favorable position and want to spend to the cap because we have a real chance to win it all – it would suck to not have the money then because we wasted it on years where our chances were slim.
I don’t think Buffalo is in a position where they won’t spend even a dollar more than 50 million, but at the same time they’re probably shooting for the lower total trying to plan for the future.
- TEMS
"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy
thanks for the reply
But I do know, for a fact, Buffalo was third in NHL merchandise sales in April of 2007 and I heard one of the announcers this past winter remark about how well we still are doing in that category. Also, the 250,000 number might be a bit misleading since we have so many fans in surrounding areas that support this team with their attendance, especially being on the Canadian border.
Whatever the case, you want to know your team is doing everything it can to bring a championship, especially to an area which has NEVER won a Stanley Cup. I would hope if the opportunity arose any time to get a really good player, we go after him.
By the way, your signature line says it all.
by ccthemovieman on Jul 3, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
We may have been third in merch sales for a year or so but that was an anomaly, not the norm. It wasn’t a coincidence that the team nearly went bankrupt just before the lockout. I understand your point – it’s no fun being mediocre. I want the team to bring in the best talent it can too, but sometimes being patient is the right move. This team isn’t one player away from being a contender right now – if it were I think we would have a better argument for spending to the cap. I don’t think anyone likes it, but that’s the way it is.
- TEMS
"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy
Buffalo/Rochester Not "Extremely Small" Market!
Temson – I have to completely diagree with you on the population stats you are referencing. The Buffalo/Rochester marketplace has a metro population well over 2MM people. Buffalo alone is well over 1MM. The 250K number you reference is a city populaton stat only which is very misleading as different counties use different definitions for defining city boundaries. You need to look at metro populations.
Buffalo/Rochester’s issues are not driven by population; rather they are driven by a complete lack of coporate presence in Buffalo and a small one in Rochester. That is the key to driving quality of revenue; most markets have it, Buffalo/Rochester does not. Plain and simple.
I don’t disagree with what you’re saying except that saying 2 million people live in the metro area is equally misleading. I admit I used the 250K number simply because it was more useful to my point but what you bring up is true of almost every city. Boston’s city population is only about 500K – but if you count the surrounding area the number rises to over a million. And, like Buffalo, Boston draws fans from nearby cities as well (Providence, etc.) Boston therefore has an easier time bringing in money from merch and tv ratings – seems straightforward to me. Going back to my original comparison – NY has a CITY population of over 10 million, and STILL draws fans from nearby areas (connecticut, etc.) So I agree that a big part of it is probably the lack of corporate presence in Buffalo but I think it’s unlikely that population has no effect.
- TEMS
"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy
tv
you also have to take into account the television deals. A team like the Rangers, Leafs or Habs makes 5-10 times the revenue from selling their television rights, which is probably the second biggest money maker for a team after ticket sales. Also from the last numbers I found online (no idea where it was a few months ago) our team was losing money despite the sell outs and merch sales.
I personally wouldn’t mind seeing a raise in ticket prices if we’d spend more money on the team. Of course I don’t live in the area anymore and only get home for a few games a year so I may not be in the consensus.
Buffalo Sabres Tradeability
In general, I agree with your assessment of each of the Sabres’ players. Pommeville, in my oppinion, has to go. He isn’t earning his salary and I believe his skills have peaked. That said, other teams’ scouts likely see him as I do and are unlikely willing to pay his salary, but that doesn’t mean the Sabres shouldn’t try. Hecht, in my opinion is hopeless; he’s in the twilight of his career. I think the Sabres are stuck with him. Paetsch should be traded if they can find a taker. Tallinder and Lydman both should be traded, but I am not sanguine that the Sabres will find takers. I hope not but I am afraid we may we stuck with too many overpaid under-producers for another season. I don’t envy Regier his job.
I think you may underrate Roy's trade potential.
The Sabres have been keen this offseason about getting bigger and tougher. They have too many of the Roy-type goal scorers. Plus Roy would be the most valuable asset they would consider trading. I’m open to them trading Roy for a top player or two. Granted it won’t free up much money, like you said, if it frees any at all. But it could make the team better overall.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
The only “top players” we could get for Roy would be players that are more expensive. Assuming Stafford is resigned we are already over our projected budget. We can’t trade Roy, cut salary and get players that will help right now (which Ruff and Regier obviously need as their jobs are potentially on the line).
Trading Roy doesn’t make any sense at all when you break down the salary numbers. You won’t get a player back who is more productive and makes less than his $3.5 million.
Roy is a bargain
I don’t know if trading Roy is a good move. He has been pretty durable, unlike some of the rest of the so called core of the team. If something came along that made us bigger tougher without sacrificing too much offense, I might take that one. I don’t think his value is as high as we would like to think it is. Considering his points per dollar, he’s a bargain. Which we all know Larry and Darcy love.
On the Sabres
Pominville: Jason came off a bad season, his first. Also right after the “pressure” of a new contract. he’s a talented passer that will no doubt be back this season. He’s a core player that should never even be considered to be traded.
Goose: The identiy of this team. There were times last year after he came back from his injury that he led this team and showed what it is to be a hockey player. He’s hands down the captain of the ice when he plays. No one brings the fire to the ice like Goose does. His offensive production might have been down but he was battling injury from the start.
Vanek: NO F-ING WAY! Great production and showed a lot of maturity last season.
Roy: Another player that is a bargain and plays with a lot of fire. Teams zeroed in on him a lot more last season because of his production in 07-08.
Kaleta: He’s the reason we go on the power play. I’d look for him to add 20+ points this season.
Tallinder: Trading Max didn’t work last year and trading brittle boy isn’t going to work this year. Buy out his contract and bring up Weber to stay. Buffalo wants to get nasty then lose this punching bag and bring in the gloves. (2,562,500 buy out = 1,708,162) (cost of weber = 750,000) 1.708 + .750 = 2.458 That is lest than Tallinders salary to keep him on the squad and waste Webers time in Portland.
Lydman: Everybody seems to like dogging Lydman, obviously nobody watched any of the games last season. He led in blocked shots and hit everybody. He made some misques but he’s a solid D-man that had a no talent hack like Tallinder as his line mate way to often.
Paille: Managed to take the roids last pre season and hit nobody in the regular season. He needs to go in a package deal with a promising young player to free up a roster spot for a full time Kennedy or Gerbe.
AND FOR GOD SAKES BUFFALO SIGN ENNIS TO A CONTRACT!!!!
by Disgruntled_at_best on Jul 4, 2009 12:28 AM EDT reply actions
Trades Free agents
They should wrap Max and Pomenville up with a bow and give them to any time that will take them. If Pomenville would play for less than $1.2 millon a year he would be a deal. But then they still have to get rid of Max. Maybe package deal with Stafford or Mancari. Have to keep McArthur. Sign McKee for a couple years veteran D not a big goal scorer but neither is Max. MAX has to go. Gerbe would be more productive than him. Package Max and Vanek and send them to Philly get Briere back!!
Trade Vanek for Briere?
Put down the pipe.
Also, Afinogenov is an unrestricted free agent. We can’t trade him. He’s not on our team anymore.
Pominville for less than $1.2 a year……..Seriously? Why don’’t ask him if he’ll play for less than minimum wage? Maybe he’ll play for free!
It's just a game.
I agree. We should definitely just ask Pominville to forfeit his current contract and start playing for the type of money you give a 4th line role player. Then we can trade Vanek for Briere and maybe Miller for Huet. Send Roy and Rivet to Portland and cut Stafford. We’d definitely get the first overall selection in next year’s draft. That’s what you’re going for, right?
- TEMS
"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy
LETS GO BUFFALO
I think we should definitely trade or demote Tallinder we need to get Myers in the lineup before we lose him to another team with out knowing what we have there. The defense i think would be solid then, maybe Paetsch could play at forward he looked good in that position in the few games he played there last season, but he is also a cheap backup if someone goes down. Stafford could be signed if Tall goes and Hecht gets sent down to Portland. Plus if anyone wants Sekera or Macarthur signed they have to clear room for them too. The organization raised the price of tickets last year for some of the games to make more money but we ultimately have to have a winning team to make money ,because raising prices at this time will alienate fans with lesser income the real hardcore fans. Spend to cap and go for it Reiger and Quinn. We need the playoff money to have a chance to compete every year or management will nickle adn dime players out of Buffalo like they do everytime.
by BUFFALO IS SCARY(G--D) on Jul 6, 2009 8:34 PM EDT reply actions
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