Forecasting the 2009-10 Sabres Season

by Zachary Zielonka on Jul 15, 2009 4:16 PM EDT

With the release of the 2009-10 schedule today, we are allowed to forecast what should happen during the winter. To forecast the results of next season, we take last season's goals scored/game at home and on the road and plug them into the PythagenPuck formula that the guys at Hockey Analytics have proven so well. With thos expected winning percentages, we can then determine approximately how many points all of the teams will score and how the division and conferences should shake out.

Looking at the 2008-09 data we can see a glimpse of who the better teams should shake out to be. The top five expected winning percentages at home and on the road are below.

Top Five Expected Winning Percentages at Home

Team	Expected Winning Percentage
Boston	.748
San Jose	.720
Detroit	.674
Chicago	.673
New Jersey	.671

Top Five Expected Winning Percentages on Road

Team	Expected Winning Percentage
Boston	.609
Chicago	.562
Detroit	.536
Carolina	.528
San Jose	.519

This approach has its drawbacks with the main one being the lack of movement in the rosters. Last year's data is not going to show how much John Tavares is going to have on the Islanders this season and it reflects Hossa's numbers with the Red Wings rather than the Blackhawks. A better approach would be to find the roster expected winning percentage which may happen as the summer approaches.

Following the break, we take a look at what the Sabres schedule is going to look like broken down by month and how many points we expect out of them this season.

The Sabres seem to have the same type of schedule this year as they did last year. March and April are the hardest two months while October will be the easiest month. The Sabres open up the season with five of their first six games at home. Their longest home stand will be five games from December 3rd-11th. Their longest road trip will be a seven game road trip from January 14-25th which includes the West Coast swing.

The expected winning percentages by month along with the average points of opponents are below:

Average Points of Opponent by Month

Month	Average Points
October	83
November	95
December	95
January	86
February	100
March	92
April	94

Expected Winning Percentage by Month

Month	E.W.P
October	.555
November	.484
December	.509
January	.506
February	.471
March	.493
April	.477

This just means that the Sabres need to get off to a good start again this season before the Olympic break happens, this is the reason why February looks so hard. The Sabres have been prone to slow starts in the past few years and it is a major reason as to why they haven't made the playoffs in the past two seasons. The overall expected winning percentage for the Sabres is .501, which should get them pretty much the exact same record they had last season.

Tomorrow we will take a look at the rest of the league and how the divisions and conferences will shake out.

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Comments

Don’t they always need to get off to a good start? Save the President’s Cup year, it seems that a lot of the time, the Sabs get off to slow to starts and then have to expend a lot of energy sprinting to the finish.

Great breakdowns of the schedule!

The population of Pominville keeps rising!

by Blackcapricorn on Jul 16, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions

Seems to me the problem is they get to a strong early start (10-15 games) the last few seasons, but then falter in November and December and get behind the 8-ball heading into the new year.

"Potential just means you haven’t done sh## yet"

by willgarr15 on Jul 16, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions

2009-2010 predictions

I think your predictions are optimistic, the Sabres, in my opinion will likely finish in the bottom four of their conference. My reasoning is as follows: 1. Miller had an outstanding year last season that he is unlikely to repeat this season. 2. The defense has been weaken, not strengthened making Miller’s job even more difficult. 3. There are too many highly paid under performing players on the team, i.e., Hecht, Pommiville and sometimes Connolly. 4. All of teams in the Eastern Division have added key personnel to improve, except the Sabres. 5. They lack leadership on the ice; Rivet is their Captain, but his leadership is has not improved the team’s record. 6. They do not have a game-breaking player. 7. The players are too complacent and comfortable – they don’t feel the pressure from management to perform.

by Geolover on Jul 16, 2009 5:37 PM EDT reply actions

I completely disagree

1. Why can’t Miller have another good season. Last season was the best of his career and why should we assume that he will regress? Isn’t it possible that he could build upon last season and be an even better goalie?

2. The defense has been weakened? Spacek was a good player but he was good because of his versatility. The reason the Sabres have missed the playoffs two consecutive seasons was they had to rely on Spacek defensively. They did not get weaker defensively by replacing Spacek with Montador.

3. You are right that Hecht and Pominville (to a lesser extent) did not live up to their contracts.

4. Are the Montreal Canadiens really better? They replaced their old high priced talent with new high priced talent but they will not be a playoff team this season. The Bruins did nothing, the Leafs got tougher but who knows what they will look like and the Senators added Kovavlev. How did the entire division get that much better?

5. Leadership is important and they are definitely lacking in some areas. I think the more important problem is confidence, they lack confidence more than leadership.

6. They do not have a game-breaker…I don’t understand this comment. What is a game breaker? Thomas Vanek had 40 goals, Derek Roy had another good season as well…wouldn’t these guys be game breakers?

7. The players are anything but complacent. If anything they are too tight. All it takes is one bad game for Vanek or Roy and they are riped in the media by Lindy. I don’t think this team lost because of a lack of effort, they lost because they made too many mistakes.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Jul 16, 2009 7:57 PM EDT reply actions

Couldn’t agree more with #4.

makes me think you don’t like Lindy too much.

by krytime on Jul 16, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Lindy

I think he does a great job coaching a veteran team but he can’t handle a young team. These guys are young and the need to be treated like little kids but treats them like grown men. I know the old adage that if you are going to get paid millions of dollars than suck it up and play, and I agree with that theory, but guys like Roy and Vanek have been told you can’t do it without Drury and Briere and in the back of their mind they believe it. They need someone to pat them on the back and tell them they can do it while correcting their mistakes but Lindy just seems to add more pressure to these guys. A couple of veterans would help immensely.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Jul 16, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he does a great job coaching a veteran team but he can’t handle a young team

I don’t think that’s exactly true. This was a pretty young team when he took them to the conference finals. The team he took to the cup wasn’t exactly grizzled either. I think it might be more fair to say he doesn’t coach the guys who got “paid” very well.

These guys are young and the need to be treated like little kids but treats them like grown men

That’s ridiculous. This is no longer a “young” team. And due to the current CBA, guys have to produce at an age much earlier than before.

guys like Roy and Vanek have been told you can’t do it without Drury and Briere

Where are you getting this from? I don’t understand. Do you really think that’s the message that Lindy is giving to those two? “You can’t do it?”

A couple of veterans would help immensely.

I do agree with this completely. Unfortunately, I don’t think they have the will or ability to add much more of a veteran presence to this team. I’m not trying to drum the corporate bell, but leadership will most likely have to come from within this year, as they’ve said.

by krytime on Jul 17, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think Lindy tells them they can’t do it but I think the fans and the media do. Ever since the Sabres lost Drury and Briere the fans and media are always saying that the team isn’t good enough to win and so far they have been right. They have been right because the team lacks confidence and not talent. On talent alone this is a playoff team but they are afraid to succeed.

Lindy has always been a coach that motivates through the media and I don’t think this team can be handled that way. It just reinforces their fear of not being good enough.

I do really like Lindy but I get frustrated as hell because I know this team is good enough to compete with the best teams in the league.

I agree with almost everyone of your points about the previous teams and the CBA as well.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Jul 17, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Completely agree with this:

but I think the fans and the media do

And this:

On talent alone this is a playoff team

And this is where were are again in agreement on needing more of a vet presence:

but they are afraid to succeed.

by krytime on Jul 18, 2009 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions

What we really need

What the Sabres are really lacking that is keeping them from jumping up a notch is one or two skilled, veteran forwards. Though Vanek and Roy are both solid players, they lack the experience and leadership the Sabres really need. Both Briere and Drury brought the talent, experience and leadership that led the Sabres to two straight Conference Finals appearances. As soon as they left, look what happened. Of course, there are other reasons for the drop off, but I believe losing two players like that was the main reason, and why the Sabres continue to struggle. When Jochen Hecht is your most experienced forward, you know you lack the balance in your roster.

by WaterIsForLosers on Jul 16, 2009 10:19 PM EDT reply actions

I agree

I think that Vanek and Roy replaced Drury and Briere adequately in some areas but the veteran leadership was never replaced. They need someone on the team that will instill some confidence in them because that is the area this team is lacking.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Jul 16, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions