Sabres Offseason: Busy or Slow?
by David Oleksy on Jun 24, 2009 10:00 AM EDT
Email
PrintIt's funny how things work sometimes. When the season ended, and the Sabres had missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season, there was a large public outcry for change. Things went quiet for about two months and now just over a week before free agency begins that talk is back.
It doesn't matter where you turn it's the same thing. Whether it be a Fanpost from Roygbiv or the GM for-a-day post from Bucky Gleason the theme is change is necessary. I was in favor of change as soon as the season ended but then reality set in and I realized there won't be much change in store for the Sabres this off-season.
Darcy Regier met the media yesterday and he basically laid it out of the media in attendance. He said "There won't be many major moves available"(I'm paraphrasing of course). He hinted that the team wouldn't be the same, which could mean anything, but said they would tinker instead of blowing it up. It may not be the popular move but I believe it's the right one.
Since everyone else has tried on their hat as the Sabres GM, I thought it would be fun to give it a try today. Before I tell you the moves I will make it is important to explain where the franchise is at right now. The first order of business is the salary cap. The NHL hasn't finalized it yet but it figures to be in the $54-$55 million range. That number is unimportant because of the Sabres self-imposed $50 million cap.
The Roster
| LW | C | RW | ||||||||
| Vanek | $6,400,000 | Roy | $3,500,000 | Pominville | $5,000,000 | |||||
| Hecht | $3,800,000 | Connolly | $4,500,000 | |||||||
| Paille | $1,350,000 | Gaustad | $2,500,000 | |||||||
| Mair | $850,000 | |||||||||
| D | D | |||||||||
| Rivet | $3,500,000 | Butler | $576,666 | |||||||
| Lydman | $3,150,000 | Tallinder | $3,250,000 | |||||||
| Paetsch | $1,050,000 | |||||||||
| G | ||||||||||
| Miller | $6,250,000 | |||||||||
| Lalime | $1,000,000 | |||||||||
| Forwards | $27,825,000 | |||||||||
| Defense | $11,526,666 | |||||||||
| Goalies | $7,250,000 | |||||||||
| Total | $46,601,666 | |||||||||
| Less $50 million Self-Imposed Cap | $3,398,334 | |||||||||
Restricted Free Agents: Clarke MacArthur, Drew Stafford, Patrick Kaleta, Andrej Sekera
Unrestricted Free Agents: Andrew Peters, Maxim Afinogenov, Dominic Moore, Teppo Numminen, Jaroslav Spacek
In the Minors: Nathan Gerbe, Tim Kennedy, Tyler Myers, Mark Mancari (RFA)
After looking at the numbers it's easy to see that there will be no chance that the Sabres are a major player in the Free Agent market. Darcy Regier has never been shy about not liking free agency. Players are often over-priced and it's something he has always been reluctant to get involved in. This team was not built on free agency, it was built via the draft and by trade.
The Trading Block
One way the Sabres could free up some salary would be via the trade market. The Sabres biggest problem will be finding a team that is willing to take the players they are willing to let go.
- Henrik Tallinder (2009-2010 Salary - $3.25 million)- Once regarded as the Sabres top defenseman, he can't leave soon enough to appease the fans. Tallinder will be difficult to trade away because he has not lived up to his $3.25 million salary. There may be a team that has plenty of cap room that would be willing to take a flyer on him.
- Jochen Hecht (2009-2010 salary - $3.8 million) - Hecht is another player that went from fan favorite to goat in only a short time. It was just two seasons ago that he had 20 goals for the first time in his career but he fell off considerably with the worst season of his career. There may be a team that is willing to take a chance on Hecht because he was a very good two-way player before last season.
- Daniel Paille (2009-2010 salary - $1.35 million) - Paille is a player that has never fit in with Lindy Ruff. He scored 19 goals jst two seasons ago but found himself on the the fourth line or in the press box more often than not this season. Paille is a player that will bring back some value but the money saved wold be marginal.
- Nathan Paetsch (2009-2010 Salary - $1.05 million) - Paetsch is another guy that went from bright prospect to the doghouse. He played extremely well a couple of seasons ago and was thought to be a key a future. This season he was an eighth defenseman and a sometimes forward. Like Paille the salary savings would be marginal and it may not be worth trading him away.
- Toni Lydman (2009-2010 Salary - $3.15 million) - You know exactly what you are going to get with Lydman. A very good defenseman that is willing to play physical and block shots. You just have to keep the puck away from him. I have never seen a player that has given the puck away more than Lydman has. I'm leaning towards keeping him but he may have the most value of any of the players I listed. He would also free up a good amount of salary.
There are no untouchables on the team, except Ryan Miller and maybe Thomas Vanek, but I think the players I listed are the most likely to be on the block. The only player that I feel has a realistic chance of getting traded is Toni Lydman...man do I hope I am wrong.
My 2009-2010 Sabres Team
I know already that you are not going to like my team for next season. Why do I know that? There isn't much change. The team remains basically the same with a couple of additions and subtractions. None of the additions that I am proposing will come from outside the organization. There just isn't enough money for the Sabres to make too many moves.
- The first of-season move is to re-sign Unrestricted Free Agent Jaro Spacek. He made $3.33 million on his last contract but he might stay for $3 million a season. All of the other UFA's should be allowed to walk.
- The second thing to do is re-sign the RFA's. Drew Stafford ($3 million), Andrej Sekera ($1.5 million), Clarke MacArthur ($1 million), Patrick Kaleta ($700K) and Mark Mancari ($650K).
- There has to be enough salary to sign these guys so we need to lose a few players. Toni Lydman is the only player that will bring back any return so he is traded for a third round draft pick. The Sabres are without a second round pick so this pick will be useful. It also saves $3.15 million on the salary cap.
- It's tough to give up on a player after one bad season but at $3.8 million it is too risky to keep Hecht around. There are no takers on a trade so the Sabres are forced to buy him out. He will still count for approximately $1.8 million this season. It will still free up some money.
The 2009-2010 Roster
| LW | C | RW | ||||||||
| Vanek | $6,400,000 | Roy | $3,500,000 | Pominville | $5,000,000 | |||||
| MacArthur | $1,000,000 | Connolly | $4,500,000 | Stafford | $3,000,000 | |||||
| Paille | $1,350,000 | Gaustad | $2,500,000 | Kaleta | $700,000 | |||||
| Gerbe | $850,000 | Mair | $850,000 | Mancari | $650,000 | |||||
| Kennedy | $635,000 | |||||||||
| D | D | |||||||||
| Rivet | $3,500,000 | Butler | $576,666 | |||||||
| Sekera | $1,500,000 | Tallinder | $3,250,000 | |||||||
| Paetsch | $1,050,000 | Spacek | $3,000,000 | |||||||
| Weber | $638,800 | |||||||||
| G | ||||||||||
| Miller | $6,250,000 | |||||||||
| Lalime | $1,000,000 | |||||||||
| Buy-Outs | $1,800,00 | |||||||||
| Forwards | $30,935,000 | |||||||||
| Defense | $13,515,466 | |||||||||
| Goalies | $7,250,000 | |||||||||
| Total | $51,700,466 | |||||||||
| Less $50 million Cap | ($1,700,466) |
|
||||||||
I was not able to stay under the $50 million mark with what I would consider to be reasonable changes to the roster. I'm taking into account the salary that will be paid to Hecht despite the buy-out,
There is a legitimet question as to whether this team will be any better than last years team but it's the best I can do in this market. The Sabres have over-paid for some of their own free agents and now they are paying for it.
We have seen other fans ideas for the off-season and we have seen what TBN would do...what about you? What are the changes you will make?
11 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
A few quick comments...
I know already that you are not going to like my team for next season. Why do I know that? There isn’t much change. The team remains basically the same with a couple of additions and subtractions.
As much as I hate to agree with this, I do. I really don’t see them making drastic changes. And with a season ticket renewal rate of 95%, why would you be forced to?
I do disagree with buying out Hecht. I don’t think they will. Even Regier hinted as much on WGR, pretty much saying there will be no buy-outs. If I were to buy out someone though, it’d be Hank. He is so overrated if you ask me. He only had two good seasons in his career. Why did everyone think so much of him prior to this last season?
I think they will allow Spacek to walk, even if they are talking to him right now. The only way I keep him is if he comes dirt cheap. I liked his play last year, but he is gettin greally old, and the strength of this organization is it’s depth on young defense. It really won’t surprise me to see Myers in the lineup next year.
I’d really like to see Pominville as trade bait. At 5 million a year, I don’t think he makes other players around him better, and for that money, he should. I’ve never been a fan of his game. I think he profited from playing in an up tempo attack while being surrounded by a lot of quality offensive talent.
It would never surprise me to see other teams try and sign Stafford and/or Sekera. Young power forwards and young puck moving defensemen are at a premium in this league. I think some team might think the cost in terms of giving up draft picks might be worth it for one of these guys.
I too would like to see some change but I don’t see it happening.
The problem with buying out Hank is simple. He will be a free agent after next season so the savings would be minimal. If understand the buy-out correctly they pay two-thirds of the salary over double the length of the contract. I guess that is a savings when you look at it. I could get on board with that theory. He won’t be here after next season anyway.
I think they will figure out a way to keep Spacek on a one or two year deal. He was the best defenseman on the team last season and it will be really hard to replace him with somebody else. I think they try hard to get a deal done with him.
Pominville isn’t going anywhere. I agree that he doesn’t make the players around him better but he is a goal scorer and once again those guys are hard to replace. He is a top six forward on any team in the league. It would be a dumb move to trade him away.
D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere
by David Oleksy on Jun 24, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we’ll have to agree to disagree on Pominville. But other than that, our collective thinking probably isn’t too different.
I just view Pominville as a player who isn’t as good as his contract says he is. For his money, he should be doing so, so much more.
Now watch – because we both agreed that there probably won’t be much movement on the roster, Darcy will go out and pull off an 8 player deal, or something crazy like that.
For the record (and unfortunately, I can’t prove it), I was hoping for a firesale at the trade deadline this past season. I wanted a bunch of them out. Hank, Max, Toni, Spacek, Kotalik. And never would I have wasted a 2nd rounder on a rental like Moore.
Also, how stupid is the rule that Myers can’t begin the season in the AHL? Either juniors, or the big show, that’s it. That is such a dumb rule. The AHL would be perfect for Myers. He’s outgrown junior hockey, but he’s probably not ready for the NHL. Playing in Portland would have been perfect. He’d get lots of ice time, and the occasional call up. Guess I’m crying about spilt milk or something.
Any chance you have a list of guys who are on the cusp of being bought out? I know it’d be all speculation. But, if Buffalo were to pursue a FA, I’d bet it’d be someone like that. Another man’s trash is another man’s treasure.
Sabres Offseason
In general, I agree with your assessment with two exceptions: 1. Pommiville is being paid at least twice what he should be getting. He hasn’t improved and will likely not improve, and 2. Connolly is inconsistent from game to game and has little or no leadership skills. This would free up $8.5K which could go a long way to signing a couple of good two-way solid players from the free agent market. The Sabres do not need a lot of “stars”; they need solid workmanlike players who work together to overcome the opposition night, after night, after night. Additionally, I share Lindy’s concerns about Vanek’s apparent lack of work ethic. If the right sort of trade were offered, I’d consider replacing him. It’s a shame he doesn’t have Ovechkin’s drive and two-way playing ability. The Sabres don’t have a Maulkin, so they can’t afford the luxury of a Sid “The Sissy” Crosby.
I agree that Pominville is way overpaid but that doesn’t mean that he is on his way out. The Sabres made a commitment to him and he is still a young player. He is a goal-scorer and they are hard to come by.
Connolly is not going anywhere. First of all he just signed an extension last March and he is the best offensive player on this team. He is the type of player that makes players around him better. The Same goes with Vanek. He is one the best goal scorers in the league and his salary is down to $6.4 million for the remainder of the deal. Why would they trade him away?
D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere
by David Oleksy on Jun 24, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Pommer regressed last year (when he WASN’T making 5 million) and don’t know what he will do over the term of this new contract but since his numbers are pretty good and he IS a good player, I expect him to rebound. I can’t believe the amount of people wanting him to ride him out on a rail when the defense and backup goaltending situations are so much worse then whatever he was/wasn’t doing.
No one will take on Connolly’s new agreement. Sabres fans will be hoping and praying that he stays even slightly healthy since we are stuck with him now.
I knew there wouldn’t be any big movement in the offseason by the Sabres but I am wondering that with the AHL callups and whatever happens on the trade front, if the Sabres can get to the 4-5 spot in the playoffs or if they are staring at 8th spot or missing with the team as constituted? Certainly the team underperformed mightily last season but I just don’t know.
The population of Pominville keeps rising!
by Blackcapricorn on Jun 24, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
and he is still a young player.
You made that point before, and I disagree with it. Pominville will be 27 in November, and while this might be splitting hairs, 27 isn’t something I would call young in pro hockey. It’s not old by any means, but it’s not young. Young is Tyler Myers playing next year….
But Maybe...Just Maybe
I know this is out of character for GMDR and DBLQ, but look at all the signs pointing towards something happening here.
We have the self imposed cap at $50 million, with only $4 million left to spare, with 5 guys that GMDR has already admitted to actively trying to sign. Obviously Staff gets 2+, Jaro 3+, so how exactly does this fit into our cap?
It doesn’t. How can GMDR say he’s going after Spacho, when all signs point to this not making any sense with “the plan”? Will they buy out Hecht like D.O. suggests? I doubt it (would I? Hell yes), but obviously some salary needs to get shifted around.
Waivers? Buy outs? Player + 13th pick to move up for an NHL ready guy? I’m not going to claim to know anything, that’s not how the Sabres roll, but it just seems so fishy at this point.
Vance
BanginPanger.com
DoubleEdgedSabres.com
Buying out Hecht
Regier has said that they will not buy anyone out this offseason and here is why:
It would cost the Sabres $6,866,666.67 this year to buy Hecht out of the remaining three years of his contract.
That is over $3 million in real money more than he would make if he were to remain on the roster.
The way the buyout works is that the team has to pay the player 2/3 (if they are over 26yo which Hecht is) of the remaining yearly salaries. Hecht has $10.3M in salary left on his deal ($3.8M, 3.5M, and 3.0M).
The Sabres could opt to spread the cap hit for Hecht over twice the remaining years on the deal (from 3 to 6 years) and his cap hit would drop from a little over $3.5M to $1.14M.
But, since the Sabres are more worried about cash out of pocket than their cap number, that is why they won’t go down this road.
Trying to trade Hecht is the only way he won’t be on the Sabres roster in 2009-10.
Hecht
I think you guys are absolutely right about Hecht. There is very little chance that they will buy him out. What is the likelihood that they can get anything for him. I guess they could try the waivers route and see if someone will pick up his contract.
If he is still in Buffalo I hope he is on the third or fourth line instead of playing on the top two lines all season. He played the majority of his time on the top two lines and he was awful this season. That is the part that isn’t talked about a whole lot. It’s impossible to win in this league without two good lines and the Sabres lacked in that area this season.
D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere
cmon guys be realistic
Ruff and Regier have their jobs on the line this year. Connolly and Pominville might be making too much, but they don’t have enough value for you to get someone who is going to outproduce them back in a trade. There is absolutely no chance they are getting traded when we need to win this year.
Besides look at Pominville at the end of year. When they finally got him off of Hecht’s line for good he started producing. He might not be the complete player that is worth that contract, but whats the point of dumping him now when his value is low when there is reason to believe he’ll better next season? He had 18 points in his last 13 games. At least give him a chance to rebuild his trade value.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Community Guidelines
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Monday’s Three Stars: Staal leads Hurricanes; Pavelski’s four-point night;
- Capitals’ Holtby rocked from the red line, juggles shot into own net (Video)
- Report: Rick Nash on the trading block; are the Rangers ready to pounce?
- Flyers’ Zac Rinaldo suspended two games for high hit, being Zac Rinaldo
- Puck Previews: Canadiens, Coyotes, look to defend win streaks; Sharks at Capitals
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
