Can the Sabres Afford Drew Stafford

by David Oleksy on Jun 22, 2009 10:00 AM EDT

Drew Stafford set career highs in goals and assists this season. He did it in the final year of his three year entry-level rookie contract. He is set to be a restricted free agent this summer meaning that the Sabres have the right to match an offer by another team or they will receive compensation.

The question that remains is not whether the Sabres want to keep Stafford but whether or not they can afford to keep Stafford. The NHL Salary Cap figures to remain in the neighborhood of $54-55 million but last season the Sabres had a self-imposed salary cap of $50 million. There is no reason to believe that they will spend more than $50 million this season.

The Sabres currently have already committed over $46 million to next years salary. They have only eight forwards, five defensemen and two goalies signed. They need to sign at least four forwards and a defenseman to complete the lineup. There is the potential for trades and buy-outs but you can see above that there isn't very much more money to be dispersed.

The Stats

Stafford has been looked at as an offensive player since he signed with the Sabres. He has shown flashes of brilliance but is criticized for his consistency. This season he still struggled with consistency but he scored 20 goals for the first time in his career.

Drew Stafford

#21 / Right Wing / Buffalo Sabres

Height: 6-2

Weight: 202

Born: Oct 30, 1985

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Drew Stafford	79	20	25	45	3	29	9	0	0	2	183	10.9

The above graphic shows you that Stafford has the size to be a power forward in this league. He is only 23 years-old and he has already had a 20 goal season. You would figure that he will only get better as he matures as a player.

Stafford is one of the best all-around players on the Sabres roster. He has obvious offensive talent as evident by his 20 goal season. He also added nine power lay goals that helped the Sabres have a successful power play this season. Everyone talks about the goals but he is much more than just an offensive player. He was one of the few Sabres players that finished the season with a plus rating. He did it by being responsible in the defensive zone.

What is He Worth?

I don't envy the job of Darcy Regier or any of the other 29 NHL GM's in trying to figure out what a player is worth. It seems that nobody is ever happy with what you decide, especially in Buffalo. The best way to decide is to compare to similar players. You would be surprised how many players are in the vicinity of 20 goals and 45 points.

Jason Pominville - 20 G - 46 A - 66 PTS ($5,000,000)
David Legwand - 20 G - 22 A - 42 PTS ($4,500,000)
Nathan Horton - 22 G - 23 A - 45 PTS ($3,500,000)
Tomas Plekanec - 20 G - 19 A - 39 PTS ($1,800,000)
Michael Frolik - 21 G - 24 A - 45 PTS ($1,275,000)
Patrick Berglund - 21 G - 26 A - 47 PTS ($1,246,667)
Travis Zajac - 20 G - 42 A - 62 PTS (RFA)
Blake Wheeler - 21 G - 24 A - 45 PTS ($875,000 - entry-level rookie contract)
Mikael Grabovski - 23 G - 38 A - 61 PTS (RFA)
Ryan Callahan - 22 G - 18 A - 40 PTS (RFA)

The salaries range from $5 million to just over $1 million per season. Would it be fair to give Stafford a three-deal worth a total of $6 or 6.5 million? They could try to back-load the contract because they will free up plenty of salary next season.

Stafford is not the only young 20 goal scorer that is set to be a restricted free agent this summer. There are plenty of options for teams to choose from which will benefit the Sabres. The more options that teams have in the free agent market, the lower the price will be to sign players.

The Verdict

I think they will be able to sign Stafford for around $2 million per season. The biggest question will be the length of the contract. Stafford will probably want a shorter deal if he has to settle for $2 million per season. The Sabres should try to make it the longest tern they possibly can but I think it will max out at two or three seasons.

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Comments

I could see something closer to three a year, for four years. Maybe even more to be honest.

What is the compensation for losing a RFA? I can’t remember off of the top of my head.

by krytime on Jun 22, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions

It depends on the salary cap

For the 2008-2009 is looked like this…

If he was offered less than $2,615,623 the compensation would be a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I’m assuming that Buffalo would match up to this amount. From $2,615,623 – $3,923,437 they wold receive a 1st and a 3rd round pick. There is a chance they could walk away if he is offered in this range. If he was offered above that amount the Sabres would receive a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick. I don’t see him making over $5 million so the higher levels are unimportant.

I hope this helps.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Jun 22, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Drew Stafford

The Sabres should keep Stafford; he is considerable asset and he will only get better. The Sabres could free up some cap money by trading Connolly for a couple of promising youngsters. Also, they need to find a way to get rid of Hecht; their just dragging their anchor with him.

by Geolover on Jun 22, 2009 5:18 PM EDT reply actions

Connolly’s trade value is not as high as you think it is. Moreover, they didn’t sign him in February only to trade him a few months later after he posts a point-per-game. Connolly is here for at least two more years.

As for Hecht, I lean toward trading him. However, he has had only 1 poor season. Outside of last year, he has been Buffalo’s most reliable two-way player. My guess is they give him this year to get his groove back and if he doesn’t, then he is gone, assuming there is a market for him.

Lastly, Stafford. I really think $3 million is where the negotiations start. I wouldn’t be surprised if his asking price is near $4 million. If that’s the case, let someone try to poach him as a RFA and take the picks.

It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.

by BeastMode on Jun 22, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Stafford will be no where close to $4 million, and probably ends up at about $2-2.5 million. If this were a normal year I’d agree he could make that much, but not in this economy. Jordan Staal helped out owners a lot by setting the market low when he signed his extension.

I’m completely against giving Hecht another shot. He pulled down Pominville all year and he makes too much for a cash strapped team to pay to a 3rd liner. Find a playoff team that needs help on the PK and can afford him (Chicago, Detroit, Anaheim) and take whatever small bit they’ll give you.

There’s no chance that Connolly gets traded. We’ll never get enough back considering his injury history.

by SabreBowie on Jun 22, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Well said

I don’t see him making over $3 million on this contract. I do think he’ll try to limit the term on the deal in order to make sure he can take advantage if he has a couple of big seasons.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Jun 22, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Hecht is not a 3rd liner. If anything, Pominville pulled him down.

by krytime on Jun 23, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Not a Chance

It didn’t matter who Hecht played with last season…he was terrible (or as Charles Barkley would say…he was tirrible). Pominville had a decent season by all accounts but suffered from playing too many shifts with Hecht. When he was not with Hecht he was producing points.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Jun 23, 2009 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Since when did the economics of the NHL make any sense? If anything the cap should be going down, but in all likelihood it will stay the same or rise. Apparently, either NHL revenues have not been affected by the recession or they are continuing their poor financial decision-making.

As for Stafford, I didn’t say he was worth $4 million, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what he wants. I find it hard to believe he won’t make $3 million in light of what the Sabres gave Gaustad last year. Yes, he is physical, yes he is a leader, but Stafford’s production and potential are significantly greater.

It'll be just you, me, and Peter Nincompoop.

by BeastMode on Jun 23, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions

The Cap

This is how the cap was explained to me…

The fiscal year (in relation to salary cap) ends before the season starts which means that 2008 revenue is driving the salary cap for the 2009-2010 season. The cap is expected to stay the same or drop $1.5 million this season, depending if the players take the escalation clause. The cap for next season is expected to drop in the range of $4 million. This means that the cap for next season will be close to $50 million instead of the $55 we seen this past season.

Every team has to start thinking about next season when signing free agents. It’s hard to say how this will affect salaries to free agents but I think it will be a tough year for free agents.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Jun 23, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions