Is Ryan Miller Being Overworked?

by David Oleksy on Dec 18, 2009 9:01 AM EST Comment 14 comments

Buffalo Sabres goalie Ryan Miller makes a save against the Montreal Canadiens during the second period of an NHL hockey game on Monday, Dec. 14, 2009 in Montreal. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Paul Chiasson)

Paul Chiasson - AP

3 months ago: Buffalo Sabres goalie Ryan Miller makes a save against the Montreal Canadiens during the second period of an NHL hockey game on Monday, Dec. 14, 2009 in Montreal. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Paul Chiasson)

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I was thinking about the Buffalo Sabres goalie situation I realized that we have been spoiled by all-world goaltending for more than a decade. We watched in amazement while Dominik Hasek was wowing us with his "slinky for a spine" in the 90's and now we have Ryan Miller bringing us out of our seats and yelling "We're Not Worthy". It's no wonder we are so critical of our backup goalies, who could live up to those standards?

Instead of focusing on the backup goalie, let's talk a little bit about Ryan Miller. As good as Miller has been throughout his career, he is off to the his best start ever. He leads the NHL with a 1.88 goals against average and a .937 save percentage. He is also tied with Ilya Bryzgalov, of the Phoenix Coyotes, for the league lead in shutouts with four.

The Sabres have struggled offensively this season and have relied heavily on the play of Miller. He has played in 28 of the teams 32 games and he was the only goalie to win a game until Patrick Lalime made 39 saves in a 2-1 victory against the Chicago Blackhawks last Friday. Miller still has all but one of the Sabres wins and his record is now 19-7-2.

Miller has been so good that his name has been mentioned along with the Vezina Trophy (Best Goalie) and even the Hart Trophy (League MVP). While watching Miller play this season has been fun, it is never his play in the beginning of the season that has been criticized; it has always been his durability that has been questioned.

Those questions have been even more prevalent this season because Miller is expected to be the starting goalie for the United States at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver during the month of February. Many people thought Lindy Ruff would do his best to rest Miller early in the season but it has been exactly the opposite. Miller has been the go-to guy for the Sabres and has played in more back-to-back games than I ever remember.

Could the added workload of the Olympics and the inconsistency of the Sabres backup become an issue for Miller and the Sabres?

Fear not Sabres fans because Miller will be fine as the season wears on. While his stats during the month of March have been consistently bad throughout his career, but it had no bearing on how many games he played in a specific season. I have worked the stats from the past couple of seasons to give you a glimpse of his stats by month.

2005-2006 Regular Season								2005-2006 Playoffs
Month	Record	GA	Saves	Shots	MIN	GAA	SV%	Month	Record	GA	Saves	Shots	MIN	GAA	SV%
October	6-4-0	28	284	312	607	2.77	0.910	April	3-2-0	12	125	137	325	2.22	0.912
November	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	May	8-4-0	32	325	357	736	2.61	0.910
December	4-0-0	6	113	119	245	1.47	0.950	June	0-1-0	4	24	28	59	4.07	0.857
January	6-3-0	18	231	249	535	2.02	0.928
February	4-0-2	14	164	178	370	2.27	0.921
March	6-5-1	44	349	393	761	3.47	0.888
April	4-2-0	14	165	179	354	2.37	0.922
	30-14-3	124	1306	1430	2872	2.59	0.913		11-7-0	48	474	522	1120	2.57	0.908

2006-2007								2006-2007 Playoffs
Month	Record	GA	Saves	Shots	MIN	GAA	SV%	Month	Record	GA	Saves	Shots	MIN	GAA	SV%
October	8-0-1	22	255	277	559	2.36	0.921	April	6-2-0	17	230	247	513	1.99	0.931
November	4-2-1	23	216	239	431	3.20	0.904	May	3-5-0	21	221	242	514	2.45	0.913
December	8-3-0	28	331	359	673	2.50	0.922
January	4-5-1	30	270	300	605	2.98	0.900
February	6-2-1	21	238	259	507	2.49	0.919
March	7-4-2	42	351	393	735	3.43	0.893
April	3-0-0	3	68	71	180	1.00	0.958
	40-16-6	169	1729	1898	3690	2.75	0.911		9-7-0	38	451	489	1027	2.22	0.922

2007-2008
Month	Record	GA	Saves	Shots	MIN	GAA	SV%
October	4-5-0	28	242	270	541	3.11	0.896
November	5-5-1	24	284	308	664	2.17	0.922
December	8-4-1	35	345	380	826	2.54	0.908
January	4-3-3	21	269	290	641	1.97	0.928
February	8-4-2	38	387	425	839	2.72	0.911
March	6-5-3	45	339	384	844	3.20	0.883
April	1-1-0	6	41	47	123	2.93	0.872
	36-27-10	197	1907	2104	4478	2.64	0.906

2008-2009
Month	Record	GA	Saves	Shots	MIN	GAA	SV%
October	5-1-1	15	192	207	436	2.06	0.928
November	5-4-1	29	252	281	597	2.91	0.897
December	5-5-2	33	338	371	725	2.73	0.911
January	9-3-0	28	382	410	730	2.30	0.932
February	5-3-1	19	234	253	489	2.33	0.925
March	2-0-0	6	65	71	125	2.88	0.915
April	3-2-1	15	165	180	345	2.61	0.917
	34-18-6	145	1628	1773	3447	2.52	0.918

2009-2010
Month	Record	GA	Saves	Shots	MIN	GAA	SV%
October	8-1-2	18	264	282	580	1.86	0.936
November	7-3-0	20	301	321	663	1.81	0.938
December	4-3-0	14	203	217	416	2.02	0.935
January						#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
February						#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
March						#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
April						#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
	19-7-2	52	768	820	1659	1.88	0.937

When you factor in his playoff performances you can see that his statistical decline does not reflect the number of games played. The above stats are not perfect because they don't factor in his quality of competition. Although there are many factors that affect the stats of a goalie, I think the above chart will give you an indication of how games played do not affect Miller.

I mentioned my surprise with how many games Miller has played in the early part of the season but the strategy makes sense. Last season the Sabres thought they would coast into the playoffs but after Miller was injured they crumbled. Lindy Ruff wants to get as many points as possible before the Olympic break so the team ca coast if they need to. The strategy makes sense, Miller should be rested after the Olympics instead of before.

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Comments

D.O. ,

That’s a real good breakdown of Miller’s career. I would only add that Ruff’s strategy for getting points early was also affected by the very favorable schedule the Sabres had through the first 7 weeks of the season, along with Lalime’s groin issues. Now that we’re into Dec. playing every other night, it’s obvious that Lalime will be getting a few more starts to give Miller the rest he needs.

I don’t want to see him play 70+ games this season plus the Olympics. Lalime needs to get 1 out of every 4 games between now and the end of the season just to play 15. With the system they have in place and the committment to team defense, I really don’t think that heavy a work load for Lalime is worrisome. I think the guy has plenty of hockey left in him, but a mix of circumstances have limited his effectiveness.

Ta,

by Tom Luongo on Dec 18, 2009 11:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

If Lalime can play at the level of which he did vs Chicago (or at least close to that) then I dont have a problem with going 1 out of 4 or 5 for him but if hes going to be giving up soft goals and the team feels they have to play different then I think we should have to go after someone around the deadline, similar to last year…

"I don't know how to explain it but we seem to find eachother on the ice and make things happen... Yeah. Pass, shoot, score... Yeah. Pass.. Shoot.. And score."

by bflo on Dec 18, 2009 12:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Honestly, he was lights out fantastic against Chicago. When healthy and the top offensive guys are sprinkled through the top 3 lines, I think we’ll see more consistent offense from this group. So, at the margin, I’d say as long as Lalime can keep the opposition to between 2 and 3 goals a game, that should give the guys enough confidence to play well in front of him. Pittsburgh at home on Saturday will be another good test for him. 2 games in a row against high-quality opponents.

Goose’s return will help their defensive zone time as he can actually win a faceoff or two.

I think we’ll know by the end of the month what the upper limit of our backup goaltending will be.

Ta,

by Tom Luongo on Dec 18, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly, he was lights out fantastic against Chicago

There were times during that game I had to remind myself that I was watching Lalime and not Miller, especially one or two of the kick saves.

Pittsburgh at home on Saturday will be another good test for him.

I don’t see why they wouldn’t play him tonight against the Leafs. I guess I still lack faith in him.

Miller may have to wait a couple games after the Olympics to get his rest. The Sabres play the Pens and Caps back-to-back to kick start the month of March, teams that I would hesitate (again, lacking faith) to start Lalime against.

by The Burl 8 on Dec 18, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You play Miller against the Leafs b/c 1) his record vs. TOR is stupidly good. 2) You want to give yourself the best chance to win one of two in back-to-back situations. You could match best goalie vs. best team and if your team throws up a turd against the weaker team you stand a better chance of losing both.

Ta,

by Tom Luongo on Dec 18, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pleeeeeeeease

Play Lalime against us tonight.

Pretty please?

Leafs Nation: A drinking team with a hockey problem.

by nhlcheapshot on Dec 18, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought i heard Lalime was one of the guys with food poisoning and he was gonna take it easy until Sat. Could be wrong though….

by Putre on Dec 18, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

….I really do hate to be that negative on the guy. Maybe we just got spoiled having the pair of Miller and Biron…

by The Burl 8 on Dec 18, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn’t go that far, Lalime has had some pretty terrible games all by himself. I can’t imagine it’s easy for a team to play hard in a close game when a softie might go in at any moment.
That being said, I think Lalime last game will help a lot; more for the team than Lalime.
Tom Luongo, who are you? and where did you get your awesome hockey-commenting skills?

by Traver on Dec 18, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Now, here is a challenge for you… find some stats that actually show a goalie (any goalie) who has played too many games and his performance drops off consistently at the end of the season. Can it be done? Sure, sometimes goalies will have a bad ending of the season, but goalies are streaky so it is no different than a goalie having a bad streak in the middle of the season or even the beginning.

I’ve never bought into the idea that goalies wear down if overplayed. It is about the same as saying a goalie needs to get some work in the early part of a game or you might be able to squeak an easy one past him. There was a blog posting on here (SB Nation, not DBTB) recently basically showing that simply is not the case at all, and just barely the opposite is true, but that never stops announcers from proclaiming such things.

If I were Ruff I’d let Miller play as many games as he wants and I bet that turns out to be a LOT of games. I would also be willing to bet that any slowdown towards the end of the season could just as easily be due to the defense being injured or tired, not the goalie.

We expect the other players to play 82+ games a season (barring injury) and they often do. Are we trying to say that goalies are harder worked in a game than a D man? I don’t see it…. sure he is out there the whole 60+ minutes, but the D is out there for 20+ and he has to skate up and down the ice all the time. Goalies just stand around for half the game… I seem to recall Miller actually saying he doesn’t really pay attention to what they are doing down there. I’m sure he does more than he let on, but still… while we control the puck in the offensive zone the goalie is standing around doing not much of anything. And let us not forget… nobody (legally) checks a goalie.

Not meaning to dis goalies, or Miller, he is awesome, I just never bought into that saying that goalies wear down if overplayed.

by clownfat on Dec 18, 2009 5:59 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Very good post

I agree with you 100%. I don’t think any goalie will wear down as much as the media makes you believe. I chose Miller because he is criticized the most and well…this is a Sabres blog after all. Once again, very good post.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Dec 18, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not entirely true

Playing goalie is NOT the same as being a defenseman. That is absurd.

The goalie “is the last line of defense” and most of the pressure is on him. I’s the mental challenge, and the responsibility of the position which is far more than anyone else on a hockey team. Many times, goalies can steal a game or lose it – on their own – far more than anyone defenseman or forward can. In Miller’s case, there is even more pressure each night because his team is a low-scoring one (only four teams worse, at this point). He has to figure, “if I give up three goals we’re gonna probably lose.”

Add to that the pressure of having USA on your shirt for a couple of weeks in February, and it makes it even tougher. His situation there might be worse because Team USA is no match,talent-wise, for Canada, Russia, Sweden and a few others. Chances are he’ll be bombarded against those teams.

HOWEVER, having said all the above, I agree with the idea of letting Miller decide how much he plays. He and Ruff have been together awhile now and should know each other well enough to make the right call. Miller’s caliber of play will dictate if he needs more time off.

by ccthemovieman on Dec 18, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I didn’t mean to say that playing goal is the same as playing defense, that IS absurd.

I do hear often that playing goal is more of a mental issue, and that may be the case. If it is, does it play into the fact that goalies somehow wear down near the end of the season if they play too much? If so, shouldn’t there be some stats that say just that? It seems like there would be. (Maybe there is, I’m certainly no stats expert.)

As for the low goals for… give our team defense some credit here, they have been playing really really well in front of Miller and Miller will be the first to say the same. Playing solid team D leads to having less goals for, so yeah, they aren’t scoring much. I’m not sure that adds more pressure, that is just a style of play and one I suspect more goalies would prefer to have. NJ sure has done it well for years and I doubt Brodeur considers their lack of offense an added stress, he probably prefers the style.

by clownfat on Dec 19, 2009 2:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's more of a mental thing than anything else

The biggest challenge for a goalie to achieve “elite” status is the mental aspect of the game. Yeah, playing every day has it’s physical ramifications but these guys are professional athletes who know their bodies well. Miler has said that the biggest thing he’s lacked in years past was the ability to withstand the mental rigors of being “the guy” every night. The mental preparation for a goalie starts much earlier in the day than anything they do physically. That’s what drains a goalie and that’s why starters need 15-20 games off a year. It’s something no skater has to deal with.

by Ogre39666 on Dec 18, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs