Crunching Numbers: Sabres Split Weekend Games

by David Oleksy on Nov 2, 2009 10:00 AM EST Comment 5 comments

New York Islanders' Frans Nielsen (51) gets checked off his skates in front of the net by Buffalo Sabres' Henrik Tallinder (10) in the second period during an NHL hockey game Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009, in Uniondale, N.Y. (AP Photo/Stephen Chernin)

More photos » Stephen Chernin - AP

3 months ago: New York Islanders' Frans Nielsen (51) gets checked off his skates in front of the net by Buffalo Sabres' Henrik Tallinder (10) in the second period during an NHL hockey game Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009, in Uniondale, N.Y. (AP Photo/Stephen Chernin)

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Because of the back-to-back games this weekend, I combined the stats posts together. It will give you an opportunity to compare the win on Friday to the loss on Saturday. I thought the Sabres actually played better as a team on Saturday, despite losing 5-0 to the Islanders. If you believe the Corsi number has some value, you might agree with me. Remember the Corsi number is just one number among many other stats that help determine the value of a player.

The Corsi number is a statistic that what created by Sabres goalie coach JIm Corsi. It is the difference in total shots for and the total shots against. It factors in all shots that were on net, attempts that were blocked and shots that missed the net. The idea is that it is a better reflection on a players two-way play because it shows puck possesion as opposed to only shots on goal.

Sabres vs. Leafs

		Game Stats
#	Player	Pos	TOI	+/-	FO%	Hits	GV	TK	BS
4	Steve Montador	D	15:40	0	-	0	0	1	1
9	Derek Roy	C	20:42	0	48%	0	0	0	1
10	Henrik Tallinder	D	21:05	1	-	0	2	1	0
13	Tim Kennedy	C	13:02	-1	17%	3	0	0	1
19	Tim Connolly	C	18:04	0	100%	2	1	1	1
21	Drew Stafford	RW	15:27	-1	100%	0	0	0	0
11	Adam Mair	C	6:06	0	0%	1	0	0	0
25	Mike Grier	RW	17:16	-1	-	2	0	0	3
26	Thomas Vanek	LW	18:04	0	0%	0	0	2	0
29	Jason Pominville	RW	18:57	1	40%	2	1	0	1
34	Chris Butler	D	23:51	-2	-	2	2	0	2
36	Patrick Kaleta	RW	6:13	0	-	2	0	0	1
37	Matt Ellis	LW	9:53	0	57%	1	0	0	0
38	Nathan Paetsch	D	10:47	0	-	0	1	0	0
41	Clarke MacArthur	LW	16:27	0	50%	0	2	0	1
52	Craig Rivet	D	21:48	-2	-	0	0	1	0
55	Jochen Hecht	LW	16:28	-1	38%	3	0	1	0
57	Tyler Myers	D	22:36	1	-	1	1	1	4
TOI = Total Time on Ice				GV = Giveaways
FO% = Faceoff percentage				TK = Takeaways
Hits = Total Hits				BS=Blocked Shots

			Even Strength Individual Stats						Even Strength On-Ice Totals
#	Player	Pos	EV TOI	G	A	Shots	S A/B	S Miss	SOGF	SOGA	SOG Diff	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
4	Steve Montador	D	13:57	0	0	1	2	1	7	6	1	14	11	3
9	Derek Roy	C	11:27	0	0	1	0	2	6	9	-3	12	15	-3
10	Henrik Tallinder	D	16:39	0	0	0	0	0	6	7	-1	13	16	-3
13	Tim Kennedy	C	13:06	0	0	0	0	0	5	6	-1	7	17	-10
19	Tim Connolly	C	12:19	1	0	2	0	1	6	2	4	9	13	-4
21	Drew Stafford	RW	10:12	0	0	2	0	1	5	9	-4	11	15	-4
22	Adam Mair	C	6:06	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	6	5	1
25	Mike Grier	RW	13:54	0	0	2	0	1	7	7	0	9	17	-8
26	Thomas Vanek	LW	12:19	0	0	1	0	1	4	9	-5	8	14	-6
29	Jason Pominville	RW	12:13	0	1	2	1	0	7	2	5	11	13	-2
34	Chris Butler	D	17:06	0	0	1	1	0	9	11	-2	13	27	-14
36	Patrick Kaleta	RW	9:46	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	-1	6	5	1
37	Matt Ellis	LW	9:22	0	0	2	1	0	3	6	-3	8	7	1
38	Nathan Paetsch	D	14:26	0	0	0	1	0	6	5	1	11	9	2
41	Clarke MacArthur	LW	11:50	0	0	1	0	0	5	4	1	9	13	-4
52	Craig Rivet	D	16:45	0	0	0	0	0	7	10	-3	12	22	-10
55	Jochen Hecht	LW	13:32	0	0	4	1	0	7	6	1	8	14	-6
57	Tyler Myers	D	17:56	0	0	1	0	0	8	8	0	12	20	-8
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice								SOGA = Team shots against while on ice
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice								SOG Diff = Difference shots on ice
S A/B = shots attempted and blocked								Tot SF = Total shots including blocked/missed
S Miss = Shots missed the net								Tot SA = Total Shots Ag. Including blocked/missed
SOGF = Team Shots while on ice								Corsi = Difference in Total Shots

This might be the worst game the Sabres have played all season and yet they came away with a 3-2 overtime victory. In the recap we showered Ryan Miller with praise but maybe we should have been even more complimentary of his performance. The stats above, only include the even strength stats. I can't even imagine what they would look like if we added the power play time.

Almost every Sabres player had a minus Corsi rating and Chris Butler was a minus-14. That is a huge number and one we haven't seen from the Sabres all season. Butler played in many key situations against some of the Leafs best players and that will make the Corsi rating look worse than it is but minus-14 has been unheard of this season.

Sabres @ Islanders

		Game Stats
#	Player	Pos	TOI	+/-	FO%	Hits	GV	TK	BS
4	Steve Montador	D	18:22	0	-	1	0	0	0
9	Derek Roy	C	18:55	-1	33%	0	0	1	0
10	Henrik Tallinder	D	17:47	-1	-	0	0	0	2
13	Tim Kennedy	C	12:17	-1	63%	2	1	0	2
19	Tim Connolly	C	17:56	-1	38%	0	1	1	1
21	Drew Stafford	RW	16:42	-1	100%	0	1	0	0
22	Adam Mair	C	8:00	-1	100%	1	0	1	0
25	Mike Grier	RW	14:10	-2	-	0	0	1	0
26	Thomas Vanek	LW	18:11	0	-	0	1	0	0
29	Jason Pominville	RW	18:06	0	67%	1	0	1	0
34	Chris Butler	D	20:26	-2	-	0	1	0	0
37	Matt Ellis	LW	9:58	-1	67%	2	0	0	0
38	Nathan Paetsch	D	8:38	-1	-	1	1	0	2
41	Clarke MacArthur	LW	18:37	0	17%	2	1	1	1
44	Andrej Sekera	D	17:34	-2	-	0	0	1	0
52	Craig Rivet	D	18:33	-1	-	0	1	0	0
55	Jochen Hecht	LW	17:10	-3	50%	1	1	0	1
57	Tyler Myers	D	22:25	-2	-	0	2	0	1
TOI = Total Time on Ice				GV = Giveaways
FO% = Faceoff percentage				TK = Takeaways
Hits = Total Hits				BS=Blocked Shots

			Even Strength Individual Stats						Even Strength On-Ice Totals
#	Player	Pos	EV TOI	G	A	Shots	S A/B	S Miss	SOGF	SOGA	SOG Diff	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
4	Steve Montador	D	16:57	0	0	3	2	0	11	7	4	17	8	9
9	Derek Roy	C	13:03	0	0	1	1	0	11	9	2	19	13	6
10	Henrik Tallinder	D	16:55	0	0	2	1	0	11	7	4	18	13	5
13	Tim Kennedy	C	12:12	0	0	0	0	0	5	4	1	11	7	4
19	Tim Connolly	C	12:50	0	0	1	1	0	10	7	3	16	12	4
21	Drew Stafford	RW	12:27	0	0	2	0	1	10	6	4	21	9	12
22	Adam Mair	C	8:00	0	0	1	0	0	3	4	-1	4	7	-3
25	Mike Grier	RW	12:55	0	0	2	0	1	5	6	-1	10	10	0
26	Thomas Vanek	LW	12:59	0	0	2	1	3	11	7	4	20	11	9
29	Jason Pominville	RW	12:49	0	0	5	2	0	9	5	4	16	9	7
34	Chris Butler	D	14:52	0	0	1	1	1	10	7	3	21	14	7
37	Matt Ellis	LW	9:53	0	0	1	0	0	4	3	1	6	6	0
38	Nathan Paetsch	D	8:38	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	6	7	-1
41	Clarke MacArthur	LW	12:53	0	0	1	2	2	9	7	2	16	11	5
44	Andrej Sekera	D	16:53	0	0	3	0	0	7	10	-3	14	13	1
52	Craig Rivet	D	12:49	0	0	1	2	1	10	6	4	21	12	9
55	Jochen Hecht	LW	11:44	0	0	1	1	2	4	8	-4	10	12	-2
57	Tyler Myers	D	16:50	0	0	1	1	0	10	11	-1	15	18	-3
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice								SOGA = Team shots against while on ice
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice								SOG Diff = Difference shots on ice
S A/B = shots attempted and blocked								Tot SF = Total shots including blocked/missed
S Miss = Shots missed the net								Tot SA = Total Shots Ag. Including blocked/missed
SOGF = Team Shots while on ice								Corsi = Difference in Total Shots

This was a 5-0 Sabres loss. The Corsi numbers look much better because the Sabres played a much better game, except the final score. We often base our decision on how a team played based on teh scoreboard without giving much consideration to how the goalie play affects the outcome. Martin Biron was outstanding for the Islanders and never gave the Sabres much of a chance in this game.

It was nice to see Butler and Rivet bounce back from a rough outing against the Leafs. After a minus-14 performance on Friday, he was a plus-seven on Saturday.

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Comments

0-2 in second game of back-to-backs

I wonder if someone as numbers last season which measure our record according to schedule.

Like last year, we start this year with lots of time between most games. Like last year, we win most of these games. Like last year, our games get more tightly packed later in the year. . . here’s hoping that’s where the similarities end.

I don’t know what our record in back to backs was last year. I know we’re 0-2 last year. I also know (well, I was told) that when you look at our sched, we have the most back to backs in the league.

I wonder (the buffalo worrier in me makes me wonder) if early season success is dependent on our schedule — not whom we play, but how frequently we play.

by beelove on Nov 2, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

erratum: "I know we're 0-2 THIS year"

sorry

by beelove on Nov 2, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s true that we’ve lost both of the 2nd games in back to backs so far, but if you look at the post, it appears to be just a coincidence…at least for the Leafs and Islanders games discussed in the post, the biggest contributing factor to the outcomes of those two games is goalie play. The numbers indicate that the Leafs outplayed us yet we won b/c of Miller, then we outplayed the Islanders in the 2nd game of the back to back, yet they won b/c of Biron. Of course, we’ll have to keep an eye out and see – there are plenty more back to backs coming up on the schedule.

by Frank Reich Revolution on Nov 2, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just watched

that NHL Network special on 50 years of hockey masks. They showed about every mask in the NHL, and a bunch in the past and there was not one shot of a Buffalo Sabres mask.

We get no respect.

by ccthemovieman on Nov 2, 2009 6:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs