Crunching Numbers: Sabres With Improbable Victory in Tampa

by David Oleksy on Oct 25, 2009 8:20 PM EDT Comment 6 comments

Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Matt Walker helps goalie Mike Smith (41) stop a shot on goal from Buffalo Sabres' Drew Stafford (21) during the first period of their NHL hockey game Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009 in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

4 months ago: Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Matt Walker helps goalie Mike Smith (41) stop a shot on goal from Buffalo Sabres' Drew Stafford (21) during the first period of their NHL hockey game Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009 in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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I promised a full recap of the game but instead you get a stats post. By now you have read all you want to read about the game and quite frankly, I still have not watched the game in it's entirety. I can say with certainty that we are all happy they didn't quit and managed to come away with two points. Last season they missed the playoffs by two points, I think they will take points anyway they can get them.

I know the opinion of many is that Nathan Paetsch played a poor game but statistically speaking, he was one of the better players. He did end up as a minus-1 but his Corsi rating was a 10. He also had five shots on goal which led the team. It looks like he was, at the very least, trying to make something happen. Based on the comments in the game thread (thanks Afino for keeping it going), this was mostly an ugly game for the Sabres and they were lucky to come away with two points. I'll reserve the right to change my mind if warranted, but I'm going to give Paestch credit for trying to spark the team.

		Game Stats
#	Player	Pos	TOI	+/-	FO%	Hits	GV	TK	BS
4	Steve Montador	D	15:15	-1	-	2	1	0	1
9	Derek Roy	C	21:07	0	47%	1	0	1	1
10	Henrik Tallinder	D	20:57	1	-	1	0	0	1
13	Tim Kennedy	C	12:32	1	29%	1	0	1	0
19	Tim Connolly	C	18:15	-1	60%	0	0	0	0
21	Drew Stafford	RW	17:44	0		1	1	0	0
25	Mike Grier	RW	15:17	2		2	1	0	0
26	Thomas Vanek	LW	18:06	0		0	0	0	0
28	Paul Gaustad	C	15:48	0	75%	0	0	0	0
29	Jason Pominville	RW	20:49	-1	50%	0	1	1	0
34	Chris Butler	D	29:18	0	-	1	1	1	1
36	Patrick Kaleta	RW	8:52	0		1	0	0	0
37	Matt Ellis	LW	7:32	0		2	0	0	0
38	Nathan Paetsch	D	13:09	-1		1	0	0	0
41	Clarke MacArthur	LW	15:34	-1	0%	2	0	0	1
52	Craig Rivet	D	26:11	0	-	1	0	1	0
55	Jochen Hecht	LW	16:49	1	43%	1	1	0	1
57	Tyler Myers	D	21:42	1	-	0	1	0	2
TOI = Total Time on Ice				GV = Giveaways
FO% = Faceoff percentage				TK = Takeaways
Hits = Total Hits				BS=Blocked Shots

			Even Strength Individual Stats						Even Strength On-Ice Totals
#	Player	Pos	EV TOI	G	A	Shots	S A/B	S Miss	SOGF	SOGA	SOG Diff	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
4	Steve Montador	D	14:02	0	0	0	1	0	11	4	7	18	11	7
9	Derek Roy	C	17:37	0	1	2	0	0	10	7	3	13	15	-2
10	Henrik Tallinder	D	18:36	0	0	0	0	0	5	7	-2	7	15	-8
13	Tim Kennedy	C	12:20	0	1	1	0	0	4	1	3	7	4	3
19	Tim Connolly	C	14:05	0	0	3	0	1	8	9	-1	14	17	-3
21	Drew Stafford	RW	14:56	1	0	4	3	1	11	7	4	17	12	5
25	Mike Grier	RW	13:53	1	0	2	0	0	7	2	5	11	6	5
26	Thomas Vanek	LW	15:58	0	0	3	0	0	7	2	5	11	6	5
28	Paul Gaustad	C	10:33	0	0	1	2	1	4	1	3	13	3	10
29	Jason Pominville	RW	15:21	0	0	0	0	0	8	8	0	13	16	-3
34	Chris Butler	D	23:40	0	0	1	1	2	9	10	-1	19	17	2
36	Patrick Kaleta	RW	8:43	0	0	1	0	1	4	2	2	9	4	5
37	Matt Ellis	LW	7:32	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	1	8	3	5
38	Nathan Paetsch	D	12:48	0	0	5	1	0	12	3	9	19	9	10
41	Clarke MacArthur	LW	13:44	0	0	2	0	0	8	9	-1	11	17	-6
52	Craig Rivet	D	21:53	0	1	0	0	0	10	8	2	16	15	1
55	Jochen Hecht	LW	14:24	0	0	1	1	0	5	3	2	9	6	3
57	Tyler Myers	D	18:59	0	0	1	2	0	6	8	-2	8	15	-7
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice								SOGA = Team shots against while on ice
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice								SOG Diff = Difference shots on ice
S A/B = shots attempted and blocked								Tot SF = Total shots including blocked/missed
S Miss = Shots missed the net								Tot SA = Total Shots Ag. Including blocked/missed
SOGF = Team Shots while on ice								Corsi = Difference in Total Shots

The Corsi number is a statistic that what created by Sabres goalie coach JIm Corsi. It is the difference in total shots for and the total shots against. It factors in all shots that were on net, attempts that were blocked and shots that missed the net. The idea is that it is a better reflection on a players two-way play because it shows puck possesion as opposed to only shots on goal.

It was nice to see four Sabres defensemen come away with a positive Corsi Rating. It was especially impressive that Butler did it with over 23 minutes of even strength ice time. If nothing else it speaks volumes for the future of the Sabres defense with guys like Myers and Butler being counted on in various situations.

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Comments

I see you’ve changed the table size; it makes it easier to read.

Question about the corsi number: Does the corsi number include ALL shots? Including on the PK? Reason I ask is that the plus/minus doesn’t account for PK/PP.

Surprising to see Tallinder with a +1 but a -8 corsi number.

Also, the corsi number seems useful but it cant account for the quality of the shot, so it seems its relevance is limited.

by Traver on Oct 26, 2009 12:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Corsi Rating

It includes only even strength time. The number would be swayed too far in either direction if it included power play time. It is somewhat useful but doesn’t tell the whole story. It mainly deals with puck control and zone time.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Oct 26, 2009 8:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if I would call it an ugly game, per se...

I thought they played hard and had the better chances for scoring. Yes, they did turn the puck over a few times, which led to goals, but they also kept pressing and showed some good resilience. They dominated OT and could have easily ended it there, were it not for some very solid goaltending. All in all, an above-average road effort. Not fantastic, but not poor either.

"Slide DiMaggio, slide!" "Hey, my name isn't DiMaggio, my name is mm..mmmm...mmm....mud."

by cmat on Oct 26, 2009 9:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Paetsch made aggressive mistakes and Ruff is not going to punish him for that. I’d prefer that than for him to come in and play timidly, getting beat while playing not to. Actually I thought he looked better than I expected. He’ll be fine.

Ta,

by Tom Luongo on Oct 26, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A great moment

In a game that had been pretty boring, to be honest, the ending to this was fantastic.

What I hope I keep with me for awhile was the memory of seeing the absolute joy on the faces of the Sabres as they raced to congratulate (hug and pile on) Tyler Myers after his shootout winner. I’ve never Buffalo players so thrilled for one guy – they must really love this kid! Drew Stafford even joked afterward, “we all missed on purpose so Ty could be the hero!”

Myers (along with fellow 19-year-old Kennedy) is injecting new life and enthusiasm into this team and their fans. It’s great to see!

by ccthemovieman on Oct 26, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs