Crunching Numbers: Sabres Breakout Offensively Versus Red Wings

by David Oleksy on Oct 15, 2009 9:00 AM EDT

A lot of good things happened for the Buffalo Sabres in their 6-2 victory over the Detroit Red Wings. The Sabres exploded for four goals in the second period and scored a total of five even strength goals in the game. The production came from throughout the lineup as well, with Vanek getting two, MacArthur scoring one, Kaleta scoring one and Gaustad scoring the final goal.

The game was pleasing on the scoreboard and for some players it looks good when you look a little bit closer at the stats. The lines were adjusted on the fly because of the loss of Thomas Vanek in the second period but overall it was easy to see trends. It was nice to see the Connolly line with MacArthur and Pominville finally break through and start creating some chances.

		Game Stats						Even Strength Individual Stats						Even Strength On-Ice Totals
#	Player	Pos	TOI	+/-	FO%	Hits	BS	EV TOI	G	A	Shots	S A/B	S Miss	SOGF	SOGA	SOG Diff	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
4	Steve Montador	D	17:28	0	-	0	2	17:01	0	0	4	0	2	8	6	2	12	12	0
5	Toni Lydman	D	16:49	0	-	2	0	14:28	0	0	0	0	1	7	3	4	10	8	2
9	Derek Roy	C	17:34	3	70%	0	0	12:56	0	3	3	0	0	8	4	4	13	9	4
10	Henrik Tallinder	D	20:33	5	-	1	1	19:12	0	0	1	0	1	14	6	8	17	14	3
13	Tim Kennedy	C	14:41	-1	56%	2	0	14:41	0	0	3	0	0	8	8	0	11	13	-2
19	Tim Connolly	C	18:30	0	45%	0	0	14:21	0	0	1	0	2	7	3	4	11	4	7
21	Drew Stafford	RW	14:00	2	-	0	1	10:31	0	0	0	1	0	7	4	3	11	8	3
25	Mike Grier	RW	15:19	-1	-	3	0	14:44	0	0	2	0	0	8	8	0	10	13	-3
26	Thomas Vanek	LW	7:54	2	-	1	0	7:54	2	0	3	1	1	5	4	1	7	5	2
28	Paul Gaustad	C	13:55	2	71%	1	2	8:56	1	0	3	0	0	9	3	6	10	7	3
29	Jason Pominville	RW	17:59	1	100%	0	0	13:54	0	1	3	1	0	8	3	5	12	5	7
34	Chris Butler	D	22:38	-1	-	0	0	16:28	0	0	3	0	0	11	10	1	16	12	4
36	Patrick Kaleta	RW	10:05	2	-	4	0	9:31	1	1	1	0	0	10	3	7	11	7	4
37	Matt Ellis	C	10:47	2	-	0	0	10:47	0	1	2	0	0	10	5	5	11	11	0
41	Clarke MacArthur	LW	17:56	1	67%	1	0	15:41	1	0	2	0	0	9	3	6	15	5	10
52	Craig Rivet	D	20:24	1	-	1	0	15:39	0	0	0	0	0	14	6	8	17	8	9
55	Jochen Hecht	LW	16:11	-1	60%	0	0	15:02	0	0	1	0	1	9	6	3	12	12	0
57	Tyler Myers	D	22:08	3	-	1	0	17:28	0	1	1	1	0	11	7	4	15	14	1
TOI = Total Time on Ice						FO% = Faceoff percentage								SOG Diff = Shot difference
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice						BS = Blocked Shots								Tot SF = Total shot attempts on ice
S A/B = shots attempted and blocked						SOGF = Shots for while on ice								Tot SA = Total shot attempt ag. While on ice
S Miss = Shots missed the net						SOGA = Shots against while on ice								Tot Diff = difference in total shots

The line of Kennedy, Grier and Hecht had their worst game of the season based on Corsi numbers but they played against Datsyuk quite a bit last night. The numbers are not perfect but the Corsi rating does give you a gauge of how players are playing.

Many people feel this stat is more accurate a gauge of performance than the plus/minus stat is. For example...Matt Ellis and Paul Gaustad get a plus one because they were on the ice for the Kaleta goal although they were irrelevant to the play. Kaleta obviously had a good game and Gaustad was pretty good as well but Ellis had a zero Corsi rating on the game. It doesn't mean that Ellis had a terrible game but it does mean that his plus-2 rating might be misleading.

Henrik Tallinder is another player I want to look at. I don't want to discount how well he has been playing lately because he is starting to remind me of the old Hank but the numbers show that he wasn't as dominant as his plus-5 rating makes us think. The Wings fired 14 shots in the direction of Ryan Miller while he was on the ice which means that the combination of inaccurate shots and good goaltending by Ryan Miller helped Hank earn his plus-5.

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Comments

Had to switch to a wide view

but good stuff! I wonder what the lines will be tomorrow night? I actually really hope the Connolly line with MacArthur and Pominville should stay as is. They seem to have some good chemistry there.

"Slide DiMaggio, slide!" "Hey, my name isn't DiMaggio, my name is mm..mmmm...mmm....mud."

by cmat on Oct 15, 2009 10:19 AM EDT reply actions

I just want to thank you for calling out the obvious to me in that there is a wide version. The past few of these tables I was sort of wondering why they were being posted in a way that was partially unreadable!

by clownfat on Oct 15, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Ditto to what clowfat said

"Potential just means you haven’t done sh## yet"

by willgarr15 on Oct 15, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I apologize guys

I always use the wide view and didn’t realize they looked that way. I was thinking about using two separate tables and maybe I will.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Oct 15, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Now that I’ve discovered the wide view, I am appreciating these stats even more.

by KTyczka on Oct 15, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Hahaha

I had to find it out from another SB Nation blog site that I regularly monitor, so happy to share…inadvertently.

"Slide DiMaggio, slide!" "Hey, my name isn't DiMaggio, my name is mm..mmmm...mmm....mud."

by cmat on Oct 16, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions

How do you switch to a wide view? I can never see the entirety of your charts.
Can you believe those face off numbers? Especially versus Detroit.

by Traver on Oct 15, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions

Never mind, I found it.

by Traver on Oct 15, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

What’s the difference between SOGA and TOT SA? Because that’s a bit confusing.

Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.

by NeverendingOptimism on Oct 15, 2009 6:07 PM EDT reply actions

I tried my best to explain it in one sentence at the bottom of the chart but I knew there would be questions. I think I will add a disclaimer at the bottom and list it with every chart.

SOGA = Actual shots on goal while the player is on the ice.
TOT SA = All shots taken towards the net. This includes all shots that get blocked as well as shots that miss the net. Sabres goalie coach Jim Corsi is the originator of this stat and the Sabres use it as a gauge for their players performance. That is why the end number is listed as Corsi Rating.

I hope that description helps. I will try to get a more thorough explanation up at some point tonight but I have a post I am working on right now.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Oct 15, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions

That explains everything. It’s more about puck possession as a team than anything else. It’s interesting to look at the Corsi numbers as they correspond to each line combos, like CMac, Connolly and Pommer, and Grier, Kennedy and Hecht. Thanks for the explanation.

Looking forward to the post.

Delightfully Ignoring The Truth since 1995.

by NeverendingOptimism on Oct 16, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions