How Will the Sabres Fare in February

by Zachary Zielonka on Jan 30, 2009 12:34 PM EST

As of right now, the Sabres sit 7th in the Eastern Conference, four points behind the Flyers and one point ahead of the Panthers. The main question is, what is this team going to do looking forward and can they keep their ground in the month of February.

The Sabres play 13 games in the month of February. Their schedule is below:

Sabres Schedule

@ Anaheim	Mon 02/02	10:00 PM EST
Toronto	Wed 02/04	7:30 PM EST
Montreal	Fri 02/06	7:30 PM EST
@ Ottawa	Sat 02/07	7:00 PM EST
Ottawa	Wed 02/11	7:30 PM EST
San Jose	Fri 02/13	7:30 PM EST
Carolina	Sun 02/15	6:00 PM EST
@ Toronto	Tue 02/17	7:00 PM EST
@ Philadelphia	Thu 02/19	7:00 PM EST
New York Rangers	Sat 02/21	7:00 PM EST
Anaheim	Tue 02/24	7:00 PM EST
@ Carolina	Thu 02/26	7:00 PM EST
@ New York Islanders	Sat 02/28	7:00 PM EST

By all accounts, the schedule looks fairly easy with two games each against Toronto, Ottawa, and Carolina. The Pythagorean expectation formula tells us the same thing. The expected winning percentages of the each of these teams are .389, .412, and .424 respectively. On the flipside though, the Sabres also have to face the Ducks twice and San Jose. These teams are basically the cream of the crop in the league. So overall what does the Pythagorean expectation formula tell us about the month of February overall. The opponents combined total goals for is 855 while the combined goals against is 932. These numbers are so small due to the fact that whether the opponent was home or away was taken into consideration. Plugging that into the formula gives us an expected opponents winning percentage of .457. That should mean that the Sabres will win 54.3% of the games in February, or about 7 of 13. Factor in the about 11% of the games go to overtime, that means that one of the losses they suffer should come in the overtime period. This gives us an expected record of 7-5-1, which is good for 15 points. The main question is whether 15 points is going to be enough.

Here are the expected records of the 6-10 teams in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt:

6. Philadelphia: 5-5-1 (11 points), Expected percentage is .502

7. Buffalo: 7-5-1 (15 points), Expected percentage is .543

8. Florida: 6-6-1 (13 points), Expected percentage is .483

9. Pittsburgh: 5-5-1 (11 points), Expected percentage is .473

10. Toronto: 6-5-1 (13 points), Expected percentage is .503

This tells us that the Sabres are expected to have the better record coming out of February and may just overtake the 6th spot in the conference. But, there is a reason why they play the games.

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Comments

good post

What are your thoughts on how they are going to come out in February? Stats are nice and all, but what is your pulse regarding the team and how do you think they will fare?

As soon as I saw the Ducks and Sharks I had reservations (rightfully so) because their good teams.

Maybe now you'll never slime a guy with a positron collider

by J2 on Jan 30, 2009 12:48 PM EST reply actions

Good Theory

The problem with this theory…this is the Sabres you are talking about. How often do the Sabres follow conventional wisdom when it comes to wins and losses. This is the team that has earned six out of a possible 10 points against the Bruins (the best team in the East) but only earned four out of eight against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

I stated time and time again that January was a big Month for the Sabres and I think they answered the bell but I’m not overly confident about the Month of February.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Jan 30, 2009 12:56 PM EST reply actions

This is the team that has earned six out of a possible 10 points against the Bruins (the best team in the East) but only earned four out of eight against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Maybe we matchup better against the Bruins. Has anyone done a fanpost about that? Including stats and general observations?

Maybe now you'll never slime a guy with a positron collider

by J2 on Jan 30, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

Actually, this is more accurate that you would believe. I did this analysis in for the January games, including the last game of December. It had them at a record of 7-5-2 and as of now, they are at 8-5 with one game left. So it is rather close but it is also a prediction. It also doesn’t say who they are going to beat.

In regards to the pulse of the month, while Anaheim and San Jose are good teams, this month is loaded with really bad teams. Carolina hasn’t had good luck in Buffalo over this season and last. The Sabres are 1-1 against the Senators, both at home, and 1-1 against the Leafs. The other thing is that the Sabres are a much better road team than at home this season, having a better goal differential on the road. 6 of the 13 games in February are on the road. There are so many things that can affect who wins what but I think that 15 points out of a possible 26 in the month of February will put them in a good position.

by Zachary Zielonka on Jan 30, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

Let's hope it works

If the Sabres can come away with 15 points in February it will be big. It would mean that they have 70 points heading down the home stretch. It should be fun.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Jan 31, 2009 12:40 AM EST up reply actions

While I did pay attention to the January schedule

I’m really not one to look more than 1-2 games ahead in general. It just seems like when the team does that they usually come out flat in a game that they have no reason to.

Why did I notice the January schedule? 9 out of 10 road games. Anyways, if I were to look at February here’s what I see:

(1) It’s full of teams we really haven’t played this season. It seems like they played Pittsburgh and Boston once a week on the average in November-December. This month seems to have teams that we either haven’t seen or divisional rivals that we’ve seen relatively little of so far.

Who here is a Bills fan? Remember that 5-1 start? While the rest of the AFC East was beating up on each other the Bills played other teams. Once they started playing within their division things went downhill.

I’m not saying that this is what I think will happen to the Sabres. I’m just remembering those road games in Detroit and Chicago… teams we haven’t seen much of and how easily they handled Buffalo. I don’t think anyone can easily predict how the month will go.

(2) The 7th and 11th. That feels to be the defining moment for me. Home-and-home with Ottawa. This is the team that we came of age against in the playoffs in 2005. This is the team that owned us in the playoffs in 2006. It’s also the team that started our downward slide last season.

We get 3-4 points and I can start believing that this group is finally buying into Lindy’s “system”. We get less and I think we’re definitely watching a bubble team the rest of the year. Probably anyways, because….

(3) The defense is injured and depleted.

I don’t care if this team goes 7-5-1 or 5-7-1. We need to end the month with a healthier defense than we are beginning the month with. Speaking of injuries….

(4) Connolly and Stafford.

I know, I’m just sort of rambling now. Free association and such. Still – over the last week Vanek has probably been the fourth best offenseman out there in a Sabres uniform. Not so much because his play has slipped… it’s because this duo is simply clicking. If Tim stays in the lineup all month I think that alone will mean a couple of points.

by dfderie on Jan 31, 2009 11:37 AM EST reply actions